Differential Machine Learning for 0DTE Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

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Differential Machine Learning for 0DTE Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

Takayuki Sakuma
Published on 3/8/2026
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management
Volatility premium

This paper presents a differential machine learning (DML) approach for pricing zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options under the Bates stochastic-volatility jump-diffusion model. The key innovation is a neural network architecture that predicts a maturity-gated variance correction within a Black–Scholes formula, ensuring the correct short-maturity limit and reducing the approximation burden in the near-singular region. The model is trained jointly on option prices and Greeks (delta, gamma, vega) obtained via automatic differentiation, combined with a PIDE-residual penalty and no-arbitrage constraints. To address the identifiability issue of the jump term in residual-based training, the authors introduce a three-stage procedure: first training the price network, then training a separate jump-operator network against a numerical proxy, and finally jointly fine-tuning both networks with a self-consistency penalty.

Numerical experiments demonstrate that the three-stage model achieves superior accuracy in delta and vega compared to price-only or one-stage DML baselines, while maintaining comparable pricing errors. The jump-term approximation is significantly improved, with the three-stage model reducing jump-term RMSE by nearly an order of magnitude relative to the one-stage residual-regularized model. One-day delta hedging tests show that the DML-based hedges produce P&L distributions nearly identical to those using true Greeks, even under stressed parameters with high jump intensity. The method also provides substantial computational speedups over Fourier-based benchmarks, making it suitable for real-time pricing and calibration. Overall, the paper demonstrates that combining DML with structured network design and multi-stage training can effectively handle the challenges of ultra-short-maturity options with jumps.

Highlights

  • 1A differential machine learning (DML) method for 0DTE options under the Bates stochastic-volatility jump-diffusion model, combining price and Greek supervision with a PIDE-residual penalty.
  • 2A novel architecture that predicts a maturity-gated variance correction within a Black–Scholes formula, ensuring the correct short-maturity limit and improving stability.
  • 3A three-stage training procedure with a separate jump-operator network to ensure identifiability of the jump term, overcoming the degeneracy of residual-only penalties.
  • 4Significant improvements in delta and vega accuracy, stable one-day delta hedges, and substantial speedups over Fourier-based benchmarks.

Methods

  • M
    Differential machine learning (DML) with twin network: a single price network trained jointly on option prices and Greeks obtained via automatic differentiation.
  • M
    Black–Scholes parameterization with a learned variance correction gated by maturity to preserve the payoff limit and reduce approximation burden near expiry.
  • M
    Three-stage training: Stage 1 trains the price network with price/Greek losses; Stage 2 trains the jump-operator network against a numerical proxy; Stage 3 jointly refines both with a self-consistency penalty.
  • M
    PIDE residual penalty and no-arbitrage constraints (delta bounds, convexity, vega monotonicity) incorporated into the loss function.

Results

  • R
    The three-stage model achieves the best overall delta and vega RMSE among Greek-supervised models, with delta RMSE 0.00548 and vega RMSE 0.000321 on the validation set.
  • R
    The three-stage model reduces jump-term approximation error (RMSE 1.35e-2) compared to the one-stage DML+residual model (RMSE 9.34e-2), while maintaining comparable pricing errors.
  • R
    One-day delta hedging using DML Greeks produces P&L statistics very close to those using true Greeks (mean -1.30e-4 vs -1.40e-4, std 9.92e-3 for both).
  • R
    The method offers significant speedups over Fourier-based benchmarks for pricing and Greeks.
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