Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting

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Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting

Philip Ndikum
Published on 3/31/2020
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Machine learning
Stock picking
AI
Backtesting
Factor investing

This research paper investigates the application of Machine Learning algorithms for forecasting financial asset prices, addressing a core challenge in quantitative finance. It conducts a direct comparison between state-of-the-art ML implementations and the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model using U.S. equities data. The study leverages high-performance computing infrastructures to train ML models on extensive datasets, including time series data for an entire stock universe and exogenous macroeconomic variables, aiming to enhance prediction accuracy.

The methodology involves implementing modern ML techniques and benchmarking them against CAPM, with a focus on out-of-sample performance. Key findings reveal that the ML models significantly outperform CAPM, demonstrating the potential of ML to handle large-scale financial data and improve forecasting outcomes. This work contributes to the field by validating the superiority of ML approaches in asset price prediction, offering insights for practitioners seeking to leverage data-driven methods in financial markets.

Highlights

  • 1Direct comparison of modern Machine Learning algorithms with traditional CAPM on U.S. equities data
  • 2Utilization of high-performance computing infrastructures for enhanced model training and evaluation
  • 3Incorporation of exogenous macroeconomic variables alongside time series stock data for improved forecasting accuracy
  • 4Demonstration of ML models' superior out-of-sample performance over CAPM

Methods

  • M
    Implementation of state-of-the-art Machine Learning algorithms (specific models not detailed in abstract)
  • M
    Training on comprehensive datasets including time series data for entire stock universe and exogenous macroeconomic variables
  • M
    Use of high-performance computing infrastructures for efficient processing and model optimization
  • M
    Comparative analysis with Capital Asset Pricing Model as a benchmark

Results

  • R
    Machine Learning models significantly outperform CAPM on out-of-sample test data
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    Enhanced forecasting accuracy achieved through integration of diverse data sources
  • R
    Validation of ML's effectiveness in handling large-scale financial datasets for price prediction
  • R
    Potential for practical applications in quantitative finance due to superior performance
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