Deep Learning for Conditional Asset Pricing Models
Deep Learning for Conditional Asset Pricing Models
This paper introduces a pseudo-Siamese Network for Asset Pricing (SNAP) model that integrates deep learning with conditional asset pricing theory. The model uses three LSTM sub-networks to estimate time-varying alpha, beta, and factor risk premia from high-dimensional firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables. The pseudo-Siamese architecture allows these components to be learned jointly in an adversarial manner, improving out-of-sample prediction. Applied to monthly U.S. stock returns from 1970 to 2019, the model achieves an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio above 2 and outperforms traditional factor models and machine learning benchmarks like LASSO and feedforward networks. The authors also propose a novel test for mispricing by comparing residuals from the full model and a version without the alpha sub-network, using the Mann-Whitney U test, which rejects the null of zero alphas. Finally, they construct arbitrage portfolios based on deep alphas and apply K-Means clustering to analyze their Sharpe ratios over time, finding that while popular and unpopular portfolios persist in the short run, their performance differences diminish in the long run, empirically validating Benjamin Graham's quote about the market as a short-term voting machine and long-term weighing machine.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a pseudo-Siamese Network for Asset Pricing (SNAP) model that integrates deep learning with conditional asset pricing, allowing for time-varying alpha, beta, and factor risk premia.
- 2Uses LSTM networks to capture long-term dependencies in high-dimensional financial characteristics and macroeconomic variables, improving out-of-sample prediction.
- 3Introduces a novel mispricing test by comparing residuals from the full model and a masked model (without alpha), using the Mann-Whitney U test.
- 4Constructs arbitrage portfolios based on deep alphas and applies K-Means clustering to analyze their Sharpe ratios over time, providing empirical support for Benjamin Graham's quote.
- 5Outperforms benchmark models (Fama-French, LASSO, ElasticNet, ridge, feedforward network) in out-of-sample predictive R² and Sharpe ratio, with robust performance under economic restrictions.
Methods
- MPseudo-Siamese network architecture with three LSTM sub-networks for alpha, beta, and factor risk premia, trained jointly to minimize MSE of one-month-ahead excess returns.
- MLong Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model sequential dependencies in firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables.
- MMann-Whitney U test for testing the null hypothesis of zero mispricing (alpha = 0) by comparing residuals from the full SNAP model and a masked version without alpha.
- MK-Means clustering to classify arbitrage portfolios based on deep alphas and evaluate their Sharpe ratios over time.
Results
- RThe pseudo-SNAP model achieves an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio above 2, outperforming all benchmark models.
- RThe model exhibits the smallest performance decay compared to benchmarks, indicating robustness over time.
- RTop 20 influential characteristics and macroeconomic variables are identified as important for predicting stock returns.
- RMispricing hypothesis testing significantly rejects the null that deep alphas are zero, indicating nonzero mispricing.
- RArbitrage portfolios constructed from deep alphas yield significant alphas relative to CAPM, Fama-French 3-factor, and 5-factor models.
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