The Wall Street Neophyte: A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges

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The Wall Street Neophyte: A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges

Qianqian Xie
Weiguang Han
Yanzhao Lai
Min Peng
Jimin Huang
Published on 4/10/2023
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
AI
LLM
ChatGPT
Sentiment
Stock picking
Machine learning
Alternative data

This paper conducts a zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's capabilities in predicting stock market movements using multimodal data, including tweets and historical stock prices. The study positions ChatGPT as a 'Wall Street Neophyte,' highlighting its limited success in this domain. By evaluating its performance without fine-tuning, the research compares ChatGPT against both state-of-the-art methods and traditional approaches like linear regression, revealing that it underperforms across these benchmarks. The analysis also explores the impact of Chain-of-Thought prompting and the integration of social media sentiment, but finds that these strategies do not substantially enhance prediction accuracy.

The findings underscore significant limitations in ChatGPT's application to financial tasks, particularly in terms of explainability and stability, suggesting that specialized training or fine-tuning may be necessary for effective use in stock market analysis. This work provides critical insights into the current capabilities of large language models in finance and serves as a foundational study for future research aimed at leveraging social media data and advanced prompting techniques to improve financial prediction models.

Highlights

  • 1Zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT for multimodal stock movement prediction
  • 2Comparison with state-of-the-art and traditional methods like linear regression
  • 3Evaluation of Chain-of-Thought prompting and tweet inclusion
  • 4Identification of limitations in explainability and stability
  • 5Foundation for future work on improving financial analysis with LLMs

Methods

  • M
    Zero-shot evaluation of ChatGPT without fine-tuning
  • M
    Multimodal data integration (tweets and historical stock prices)
  • M
    Chain-of-Thought prompting strategies
  • M
    Performance benchmarking against baseline and advanced models

Results

  • R
    ChatGPT underperforms state-of-the-art methods in stock movement prediction
  • R
    ChatGPT also lags behind traditional linear regression using price features
  • R
    Inclusion of tweets and Chain-of-Thought prompting does not significantly improve performance
  • R
    Model shows limitations in explainability and stability for financial tasks
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