Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Design

—

Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Design

Yongxin Yang
Yu Zheng
Timothy M. Hospedales
Published on 9/14/2016
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
AI

This paper introduces a novel gated neural network architecture for pricing European call options that combines data-driven learning with economic rationality constraints. The model consists of two components: a set of 'expert' pricing networks that each learn a local pricing function, and a gating network that softly assigns each option to the appropriate expert based on moneyness and time-to-maturity. This divide-and-conquer approach allows the model to automatically adapt to different market regimes without manual categorization. Crucially, the network is designed to inherently satisfy six no-arbitrage conditions (C1-C6), including monotonicity in strike and maturity, convexity in strike, and appropriate boundary behavior. For conditions that cannot be enforced architecturally (C5, C6), the authors synthesize virtual training data points. For the multi-model, a learning-from-hints loss is added to ensure convexity (C2).

Empirically, the model is evaluated on a large dataset of S&P 500 index options spanning 20 years (1996-2016) with over 3 million contracts. It significantly outperforms both econometric models (Black-Scholes, Variance Gamma, Kou Jump) and previous neural network approaches (PSSF, Modular Neural Networks) in terms of MSE and MAPE. The multi-model achieves a test MAPE of 6.84% compared to 26.25% for PSSF and 22.42% for Black-Scholes. Additionally, the model produces a valid risk-neutral density function, which is a key requirement for risk management applications. The authors demonstrate that the density is non-negative and integrates to one, unlike prior neural methods. Overall, the work shows that embedding domain knowledge (economic axioms) into neural network design not only guarantees economically sensible predictions but also improves generalization and predictive accuracy.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a gated neural network architecture that automatically learns to divide-and-conquer the option pricing problem space for robust and accurate pricing.
  • 2Integrates economic axioms (no-arbitrage conditions) into the neural network design, ensuring predictions are economically rational and satisfy all six rationality conditions.
  • 3Achieves superior pricing performance compared to existing econometric and machine learning models on a large-scale S&P 500 index options dataset.
  • 4Provides a valid risk-neutral density function as a byproduct, enabling extraction of risk management metrics such as variance, skewness, and kurtosis.

Methods

  • M
    Gated neural network with multiplicative gates combining moneyness and time-to-maturity features.
  • M
    Mixture-of-experts architecture with a softmax weighting network for automatic option categorization.
  • M
    Virtual data synthesis to enforce boundary conditions (C5, C6) and a learning-from-hints loss to enforce convexity (C2).
  • M
    Training with combined MSE and MAPE loss functions using Adam optimizer.

Results

  • R
    The multi-model achieves test MSE of 12.11 and MAPE of 6.84%, significantly outperforming all baselines (e.g., PSSF: MSE 269.56, MAPE 26.25%; Black-Scholes: MSE 64.71, MAPE 22.42%).
  • R
    The proposed model generates a valid risk-neutral density that is non-negative and integrates to one, unlike existing neural network methods.
  • R
    Performance drops during financial crises (Dot-com bubble, 2008 crisis, European debt crisis) are observed across all methods, but the multi-model remains the most stable.
  • R
    Virtual data and second-derivative enforcement are necessary to produce economically reasonable probability densities.
0/5

Analyze Paper

Generate insights from "Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Des...".

Suggested Actions