RiskLabs: Predicting Financial Risk Using Large Language Model based on Multimodal and Multi-Sources Data

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RiskLabs: Predicting Financial Risk Using Large Language Model based on Multimodal and Multi-Sources Data

Yupeng Cao
Zhi Chen
Prashant Kumar
Qingyun Pei
Yangyang Yu
Haohang Li
Fabrizio Dimino
Lorenzo Ausiello
K. P. Subbalakshmi
Papa Momar Ndiaye
Published on 4/11/2024
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
AI
LLM
Risk management
Earnings call
Sentiment
Machine learning
Alternative data

This paper introduces RiskLabs, a novel framework that applies Large Language Models (LLMs) to financial risk prediction, addressing a significant gap in existing research where LLMs have been primarily used for tasks like text summarization and binary stock movement classification. The framework uniquely integrates multimodal financial data, including textual and vocal information from Earnings Conference Calls (ECCs), market-related time series data, and contextual news data, to enhance prediction accuracy. By leveraging LLMs' natural language processing capabilities, RiskLabs analyzes these diverse data sources to forecast financial risks, particularly market volatility and variance.

The research employs a comparative experimental design to evaluate the contributions of different data modalities to risk assessment, highlighting the crucial role of LLMs in processing and synthesizing complex financial information. Empirical results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in improving risk prediction through multimodal integration, while also discussing challenges associated with applying LLMs in financial contexts. The study advances the application of AI in finance by showing how LLMs can be combined with diverse data sources for sophisticated risk analysis, potentially informing better investment decisions and risk management strategies.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces RiskLabs, a novel framework leveraging LLMs for financial risk prediction
  • 2Integrates multimodal data including textual/vocal ECCs, market time series, and news data
  • 3Addresses underexplored application of LLMs to financial risk prediction beyond binary classification
  • 4Examines contributions of different data sources to risk assessment through comparative experiments
  • 5Highlights the crucial role of LLMs in analyzing multimodal financial data for risk forecasting

Methods

  • M
    Large Language Model (LLM) integration for financial data analysis
  • M
    Multimodal data fusion combining textual, vocal, and time series information
  • M
    Comparative experimental design to evaluate different data source contributions
  • M
    Empirical validation using market volatility and variance forecasting metrics

Results

  • R
    RiskLabs demonstrates effectiveness in forecasting market volatility and variance
  • R
    Multimodal integration improves financial risk prediction compared to single-source approaches
  • R
    LLMs play a crucial role in analyzing complex financial data for risk assessment
  • R
    Different data sources contribute variably to financial risk prediction accuracy
  • R
    The framework addresses challenges in applying LLMs to financial risk contexts
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