Statistical inference for rough volatility: Minimax Theory

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Statistical inference for rough volatility: Minimax Theory

Carsten Chong
Marc Hoffmann
Yanghui Liu
Mathieu Rosenbaum
Grégoire Szymanski
Published on 10/3/2022
Equities
Options
Machine learning
Risk management
Volatility effect

This paper provides the first rigorous statistical analysis of estimating the Hurst parameter H in rough volatility models from discrete price observations. The authors establish minimax lower bounds and design optimal estimators based on adaptive wavelet methods. For a piecewise constant volatility model, they show the optimal rate is max(n^{-1/(4H+2)}, δ^{1/2}), where δ is the scale at which volatility is constant. In the general continuous model, the optimal rate becomes n^{-1/(4H+2)} for H in (0,3/4). The key innovation is the use of pre-averaging to mitigate the roughness of volatility paths and a bias correction procedure that iteratively improves the estimator. The results demonstrate that H can be estimated with accuracy approaching n^{-1/2} as H→0, comparable to regular parametric models. The paper also provides lower bounds for estimating the volatility-of-volatility parameter η, which includes an additional logarithmic factor.

Highlights

  • 1First rigorous minimax analysis for estimating the Hurst index H in rough volatility models from discrete price observations.
  • 2Establishes optimal rate of convergence n^{-1/(4H+2)} for estimating H, extending results from H>1/2 to all H in (0,1).
  • 3Develops adaptive wavelet-based estimators using pre-averaging and bias correction to achieve minimax optimality.
  • 4Shows that for small H, the convergence rate approaches n^{-1/2}, comparable to regular statistical models.

Methods

  • M
    Wavelet-based energy level estimation with pre-averaging to handle rough volatility paths.
  • M
    Minimax lower bound derivation using hidden pathwise strategy and Gaussian calculus.
  • M
    Adaptive thresholding to select optimal wavelet resolution for estimation.
  • M
    Bias correction via iterative bootstrapping to remove scaling law distortions in the general model.

Results

  • R
    Minimax optimal rate for estimating H is n^{-1/(4H+2)} for the general rough volatility model.
  • R
    For piecewise constant volatility, the rate is max(n^{-1/(4H+2)}, δ^{1/2}) where δ is the volatility constancy scale.
  • R
    The estimator achieves tightness uniformly over compact parameter sets.
  • R
    The rate for estimating η (volatility of volatility) includes an additional log n factor.
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