Quant GANs: Deep Generation of Financial Time Series

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Quant GANs: Deep Generation of Financial Time Series

Magnus Wiese
Robert Knobloch
Ralf Korn
Peter Kretschmer
Published on 7/15/2019
Equities
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management

Quant GANs propose a novel data-driven approach for generating realistic financial time series using generative adversarial networks (GANs) combined with temporal convolutional networks (TCNs). The paper provides the first rigorous mathematical definition of TCNs, which are used to model long-range dependencies such as volatility clustering. The generator is designed as a Stochastic Volatility Neural Network (SVNN), consisting of volatility and drift TCNs and an innovation network, ensuring that the generated process allows transition to its risk-neutral distribution and can be constrained to conditionally normal log returns. Theoretical results prove that all moments of the SVNN process exist, addressing heavy-tail properties via Lambert W transformations.

Numerical experiments on the S&P 500 index from 2009 to 2018 demonstrate that Quant GANs generate synthetic paths that closely match empirical distributional properties for both small and large lags. The generated data captures key stylized facts including volatility clustering, leverage effects, and serial autocorrelations in absolute returns, outperforming a GARCH(1,1) model. The work bridges pure data-driven and model-driven approaches, offering a flexible and powerful tool for financial time series generation with applications in risk management, trading strategy robustification, and data augmentation.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces Quant GANs, a data-driven model using generative adversarial networks (GANs) with temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) to generate realistic financial time series.
  • 2Provides the first rigorous mathematical definition of temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) in the literature.
  • 3Proposes Stochastic Volatility Neural Networks (SVNNs) that allow transition to risk-neutral distribution and can be constrained to conditionally normal log returns.
  • 4Demonstrates that Quant GANs capture key stylized facts including volatility clustering, leverage effects, and heavy tails, outperforming GARCH models.
  • 5Proves theoretical L^p-space properties for SVNNs, ensuring existence of all moments.

Methods

  • M
    Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with a generator and discriminator trained adversarially.
  • M
    Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) with dilated causal convolutions to capture long-range dependencies.
  • M
    Stochastic Volatility Neural Networks (SVNNs) combining volatility and drift TCNs with an innovation network.
  • M
    Lambert W transformation for generating heavy-tailed returns from Gaussian noise.

Results

  • R
    Quant GANs generate synthetic S&P 500 paths that closely match empirical distributional properties for both small and large lags.
  • R
    Generated data exhibits volatility clusters, leverage effects, and serial autocorrelations in absolute returns with high fidelity.
  • R
    Quant GANs outperform a GARCH(1,1) model in matching stylized facts of financial returns.
  • R
    The SVNN architecture ensures stationarity and allows risk-neutral evaluation of generated paths.
  • R
    All moments of the generated process exist, addressing heavy-tail concerns.
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