A nonparametric test for rough volatility
A nonparametric test for rough volatility
This paper introduces a nonparametric test to determine whether asset return volatility follows a standard semimartingale process (with finite quadratic variation) or a rough process (with infinite quadratic variation). The test exploits the fact that rough volatility implies negatively autocorrelated increments at high frequencies, whereas semimartingale volatility yields asymptotically uncorrelated increments. The test statistic is based on the sample autocovariance of increments of spot volatility estimates, which are constructed from the empirical characteristic function of high-frequency price returns over local blocks. By choosing characteristic exponents away from zero, the method mitigates the impact of finite variation jumps, while biases from infinite variation jumps and microstructure noise are shown to have asymptotically uncorrelated increments across blocks. Under the null hypothesis of semimartingale volatility, the test statistic converges to a standard normal distribution, while under the alternative of rough volatility, it diverges to negative infinity, ensuring asymptotic power equal to one. The test is derived under very general conditions, including the presence of jumps with arbitrary activity and market microstructure noise. An empirical application to SPY high-frequency data provides strong evidence in favor of rough volatility, consistent with recent findings in the literature.
Highlights
- 1Develops a nonparametric test to distinguish between semimartingale and rough volatility using high-frequency data.
- 2Test is based on the negative autocorrelation of volatility increments at high frequencies under rough volatility.
- 3Robust to jumps of arbitrary activity and market microstructure noise.
- 4Provides a feasible central limit theorem under the null hypothesis and asymptotic power equal to one.
- 5Empirical application to SPY data finds evidence of rough volatility.
Methods
- MSpot volatility estimation via empirical characteristic function of price increments in local blocks.
- MSample autocovariance of increments of spot volatility estimates over non-overlapping blocks.
- MSelf-normalized test statistic converging to standard normal under null and diverging to negative infinity under alternative.
- MTheoretical analysis under general Itô semimartingale setup with jumps and microstructure noise.
Results
- RUnder semimartingale volatility, the first-order autocovariance of spot volatility increments is asymptotically zero.
- RUnder rough volatility, the scaled sample autocovariance converges to a strictly negative number.
- RTest has fixed asymptotic size and asymptotic power equal to one.
- RRobustness to infinite variation jumps and microstructure noise is theoretically established.
- REmpirical application to SPY high-frequency data rejects semimartingale volatility in favor of rough volatility.
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