A novel approach to quantify volatility prediction

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A novel approach to quantify volatility prediction

Suchetana Sadhukhan
Shiv Manjaree Gopaliya
Pushpdant Jain
Published on 11/1/2022
Options
Derivatives
United States (US)
Volatility effect
Machine learning
Risk management

This paper presents a simple yet effective approach for volatility prediction using robust least squares regression, applied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from 2011 to 2022. The authors first decompose the logarithmic return time series into long-term trend, seasonal, and remainder components using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter, which allows separate analysis of different scales of motion. Then, they apply robust least squares curve fitting with and without the least absolute residuals (LAR) method to derive generalized prediction equations for volatility and each component. The LAR method, which minimizes absolute residuals, is found to be more robust to outliers and yields significantly lower root mean square errors (RMSE) for training data: volatility (0.01366 vs. 0.07559), trend (0.01615 vs. 0.0745), seasonal (0.001123 vs. 7.054), and remainder (0.0001294 vs. 0.4691). For testing data, LAR also provides better predictions for all components, with RMSE values of 0.10087 (trend), 0.010343 (seasonal), and 0.014783 (remainder), while volatility testing RMSE is similar between methods. The study contributes generalized prediction equations that can be directly used by researchers for market volatility analysis, and highlights the importance of decomposing volatility into its constituent components for more accurate forecasting.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel, simple approach using robust least squares method with LAR for volatility prediction.
  • 2Decomposes VIX time series into long-term trend, seasonal, and remainder components using Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter.
  • 3Provides generalized prediction equations for volatility and its three components for the first time.
  • 4Demonstrates that LAR-based robust regression outperforms non-LAR method in training and testing RMSE.
  • 5Validates approach on CBOE VIX data from 2011 to 2022, including COVID-19 period.

Methods

  • M
    Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter for time series decomposition into trend, seasonal, and remainder.
  • M
    Robust least squares regression with least absolute residuals (LAR) and without LAR for curve fitting.
  • M
    MATLAB Curve Fitting toolbox for surface fitting and residual analysis.
  • M
    Root mean square error (RMSE) for model validation.

Results

  • R
    LAR method yields lower RMSE for volatility (0.01366) vs. without LAR (0.07559) on training data.
  • R
    LAR method also improves prediction for trend (RMSE=0.10087), seasonal (0.010343), and remainder (0.014783) components.
  • R
    Generalized prediction equations for volatility and its components are provided with coefficient tables.
  • R
    Testing RMSE for volatility is similar between LAR (0.08182) and without LAR (0.08114).
  • R
    LAR method consistently outperforms non-LAR for all decomposed components in both training and testing.
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