Logarithmic regret in the ergodic Avellaneda-Stoikov market making model
Logarithmic regret in the ergodic Avellaneda-Stoikov market making model
This paper studies the regret arising from learning the price sensitivity parameter κ of liquidity takers in an ergodic version of the Avellaneda–Stoikov market making model. The market maker aims to maximize long-run average reward while managing inventory risk, and must learn κ online. The authors propose a learning algorithm based on a regularized maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) that updates the estimate of κ each time a market order arrives. They prove that the expected regret, defined as the difference between the optimal reward and the reward obtained by the learning algorithm, is bounded by O(ln²T). This is achieved through two key ingredients: (1) establishing that the ergodic constant (optimal average reward) is twice differentiable with respect to κ, leading to a second-order performance gap when using a misspecified parameter; (2) deriving a high-probability bound of order N^{-1/2} for the MLE error using concentration inequalities for Bernoulli signals. The paper also provides an explicit solution to the ergodic HJB equation and proves existence of an invariant measure for the controlled inventory process. Numerical experiments validate the theoretical regret bound and demonstrate the algorithm's robustness. This work is the first to analyze regret in ergodic control of jump diffusions, contributing to the literature on online learning in continuous-time stochastic control.
Highlights
- 1First regret analysis for ergodic control of jump diffusions in the Avellaneda–Stoikov market making model.
- 2Achieves expected regret upper bound of order ln²T for learning the price sensitivity parameter κ.
- 3Establishes existence of and convergence to an invariant measure for the ergodic market making model.
- 4Derives second-order derivative bounds of the ergodic constant under misspecified κ, enabling second-order performance gap analysis.
- 5Uses regularized maximum-likelihood estimator with concentration inequalities for Bernoulli signals to obtain learning rate of order N^{-1/2}.
Methods
- MErgodic Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with explicit solution for optimal control.
- MRegularized maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) for online learning of κ.
- MConcentration inequalities for Bernoulli random variables to bound estimation error.
- MSecond-order Taylor expansion of the ergodic constant to quantify regret from misspecified parameter.
Results
- RExpected regret upper bound of order ln²T is proven for the proposed learning algorithm.
- RThe ergodic constant γ(κ) is twice differentiable with respect to κ, leading to a quadratic performance gap.
- RThe regularized MLE achieves a high-probability estimation error of order N^{-1/2} after N market order arrivals.
- RNumerical experiments confirm the ln²T regret scaling and robustness of the algorithm.
- RThe optimal strategy in the ergodic model is given in closed form via the HJB solution.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "Logarithmic regret in the ergodic Avellaneda-Stoikov market ...".