Detecting data-driven robust statistical arbitrage strategies with deep neural networks

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Detecting data-driven robust statistical arbitrage strategies with deep neural networks

Ariel Neufeld
Julian Sester
Daiying Yin
Published on 3/7/2022
Equities
Derivatives
Arbitrage
Machine learning
Deep learning
Pairs trading

This paper presents a novel deep learning-based method for detecting robust statistical arbitrage strategies in financial markets, addressing model ambiguity. The authors define robust statistical arbitrage as strategies that yield positive expected profits conditional on terminal asset prices under all probability measures in an ambiguity set. They construct the ambiguity set using a Wasserstein ball around the empirical distribution of historical returns, making the approach entirely data-driven and model-free. A key theoretical contribution is Theorem 2.14, which shows that minimizing a penalized functional over neural network-represented trading strategies is equivalent to finding robust statistical arbitrage strategies for a sufficiently large penalty parameter. This allows the method to scale to high-dimensional settings (e.g., 50 assets) where traditional linear programming approaches fail. Empirically, the authors test their method on S&P 500 data and demonstrate that the identified strategies generate significant profits even during financial crises and when cointegration relationships break down, outperforming classical pairs trading. The results highlight the method's robustness and practical applicability in real-world markets.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a deep neural network approach to detect robust statistical arbitrage strategies under model ambiguity, applicable in high-dimensional settings.
  • 2Introduces a data-driven ambiguity set of probability measures derived from historical data using Wasserstein distance, enabling model-free detection.
  • 3Provides a penalization functional whose minimization with neural networks yields robust statistical arbitrage strategies, proven theoretically.
  • 4Empirically demonstrates profitability in 50-dimensional markets, during financial crises, and when cointegration breaks down.

Methods

  • M
    Deep neural networks to represent trading strategies and minimize a penalized loss function for robust statistical arbitrage.
  • M
    Wasserstein distance-based ambiguity set construction from historical returns to generate multiple probability measures.
  • M
    Linear programming baseline (from prior work) for comparison in low-dimensional settings.

Results

  • R
    The neural network approach successfully identifies robust statistical arbitrage strategies in high dimensions (up to 50 assets).
  • R
    Strategies remain profitable during financial crises and when pairs trading fails due to broken cointegration.
  • R
    Outperforms classical pairs trading strategies in empirical tests on S&P 500 data.
  • R
    The performance is robust to the choice of bounds on asset prices, with diminishing returns beyond a threshold.
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