Optimal Pairs Trading with Time-Varying Volatility
Optimal Pairs Trading with Time-Varying Volatility
This paper proposes a pairs trading model that incorporates time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) type, extending traditional pairs trading frameworks. The authors formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem where a trader holds a portfolio of two co-integrated assets and seeks to maximize expected power utility from terminal wealth over a fixed horizon. The optimal trading strategies are characterized by solving a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation using a Finite Difference method. Model parameters are estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on historical daily data. The results demonstrate that accounting for time-varying volatility leads to significantly different optimal strategies compared to constant volatility models, and empirical tests show improved performance, highlighting the importance of modeling volatility dynamics in pairs trading.
Highlights
- 1Extends pairs trading to incorporate time-varying volatility via the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model.
- 2Formulates the optimal trading problem as a stochastic control problem maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.
- 3Computes optimal strategies using a Finite Difference method to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
- 4Validates the model with historical market data at daily frequency, estimating parameters via Generalized Method of Moments.
Methods
- MStochastic control theory with power utility maximization.
- MFinite Difference method for solving the HJB PDE.
- MGeneralized Method of Moments (GMM) for parameter estimation.
- MCointegration modeling for pairs trading.
Results
- ROptimal portfolio weights are derived as functions of the spread and volatility state.
- RTime-varying volatility significantly impacts optimal trading strategies compared to constant volatility models.
- REmpirical tests on historical data show improved performance over constant volatility benchmarks.
- RThe CEV parameter captures leverage effects observed in financial markets.
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