Optimal Pairs Trading with Time-Varying Volatility

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Optimal Pairs Trading with Time-Varying Volatility

T. N. Li
A. Tourin
Published on 11/4/2021
Equities
Pairs trading
Machine learning
Risk management

This paper proposes a pairs trading model that incorporates time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) type, extending traditional pairs trading frameworks. The authors formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem where a trader holds a portfolio of two co-integrated assets and seeks to maximize expected power utility from terminal wealth over a fixed horizon. The optimal trading strategies are characterized by solving a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation using a Finite Difference method. Model parameters are estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on historical daily data. The results demonstrate that accounting for time-varying volatility leads to significantly different optimal strategies compared to constant volatility models, and empirical tests show improved performance, highlighting the importance of modeling volatility dynamics in pairs trading.

Highlights

  • 1Extends pairs trading to incorporate time-varying volatility via the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model.
  • 2Formulates the optimal trading problem as a stochastic control problem maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.
  • 3Computes optimal strategies using a Finite Difference method to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
  • 4Validates the model with historical market data at daily frequency, estimating parameters via Generalized Method of Moments.

Methods

  • M
    Stochastic control theory with power utility maximization.
  • M
    Finite Difference method for solving the HJB PDE.
  • M
    Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for parameter estimation.
  • M
    Cointegration modeling for pairs trading.

Results

  • R
    Optimal portfolio weights are derived as functions of the spread and volatility state.
  • R
    Time-varying volatility significantly impacts optimal trading strategies compared to constant volatility models.
  • R
    Empirical tests on historical data show improved performance over constant volatility benchmarks.
  • R
    The CEV parameter captures leverage effects observed in financial markets.
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