Rough volatility: fact or artefact?

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Rough volatility: fact or artefact?

Rama Cont
Purba Das
Published on 3/24/2022
Equities
Cross-asset
Volatility effect
High frequency trading
Machine learning

This paper critically examines the empirical evidence for the 'rough volatility' hypothesis, which claims that financial volatility follows a fractional process with Hurst exponent H<0.5. The authors propose a non-parametric, model-free estimator of path roughness based on normalized p-th variation along a sequence of partitions. This estimator is shown to consistently recover the roughness index for fractional Brownian motion and other processes. Applying the method to simulated data from stochastic volatility models, they find that even when the true instantaneous volatility has diffusive dynamics (H=0.5), the realized volatility—computed from high-frequency returns—exhibits an apparent roughness with estimated Hurst exponent significantly below 0.5. This bias persists across different values of the true Hurst exponent, suggesting that the roughness observed in empirical realized volatility series is an artefact of estimation error rather than a property of the underlying volatility process. The results imply that parametric models relying on a single Hurst parameter to capture both short-term roughness and long-term dependence are misspecified, and caution against interpreting low Hurst estimates from realized volatility as evidence for rough volatility.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces a non-parametric, model-free method for estimating path roughness using normalized p-th variation.
  • 2Shows that realized volatility estimates exhibit rough behavior (H<0.5) even when the true spot volatility is as smooth as Brownian motion.
  • 3Demonstrates through simulations that estimation error in realized volatility induces an apparent roughness, questioning the 'rough volatility' hypothesis.
  • 4Provides a theoretical framework linking variation index and roughness index for continuous paths.

Methods

  • M
    Normalized p-th variation along a sequence of partitions for pathwise roughness estimation.
  • M
    Monte Carlo simulations of fractional Brownian motion and stochastic volatility models.
  • M
    Comparison of roughness estimates for realized volatility vs. instantaneous volatility in fractional volatility models.

Results

  • R
    Realized volatility consistently yields Hurst exponent estimates below 0.5, regardless of the true spot volatility roughness.
  • R
    For diffusive spot volatility (H=0.5), realized volatility estimates show apparent roughness with H~0.1-0.3.
  • R
    The bias in roughness estimation is attributed to the estimation error (microstructure noise) inherent in realized volatility.
  • R
    Parametric models that conflate short-term roughness and long-term dependence via a single Hurst exponent are misspecified.
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