GraphCNNpred: A stock market indices prediction using a Graph based deep learning system
GraphCNNpred: A stock market indices prediction using a Graph based deep learning system
The paper introduces GraphCNNpred, a novel deep learning framework that integrates graph neural networks (GNNs) with convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for predicting stock market index trends. The model leverages a diverse dataset of 82 daily features across five major indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJI, NYSE, RUSSELL). A key innovation is the construction of a correlation-based graph where features are nodes and edges are formed when pairwise correlation exceeds 0.7. This graph enables message passing among correlated features during daily feature extraction, replacing the simple linear transformation used in prior CNNpred models. For durational feature extraction, the model employs CNN layers with 3×1 filters to capture temporal patterns over consecutive days. The framework offers flexible configurations (e.g., GAT-CNN, CNN-GAT, CNN-GAT-CNN) to balance complexity and performance. Experiments show that GraphCNNpred significantly outperforms baseline algorithms (2D-CNNpred, 3D-CNNpred, pure GAT, pure GCN) by 4% to 15% in F-measure across all indices. Additionally, a trading simulation using three-class labeling (up, down, unchanged) achieves Sharpe ratios exceeding 3 and superior CEQ returns compared to always-long and baseline strategies. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining GNNs with CNNs for stock prediction, highlighting the importance of capturing both feature correlations and temporal dynamics.
Highlights
- 1Proposes GraphCNNpred, a hybrid model combining graph neural networks (GCN/GAT) with CNN for stock index trend prediction.
- 2Achieves 4% to 15% improvement in F-measure over baseline algorithms (CNNpred, GAT, GCN) across five major indices.
- 3Integrates diverse data sources (82 features) and constructs correlation-based graphs for daily feature extraction.
- 4Demonstrates superior trading performance with Sharpe ratios exceeding 3 in simulations.
- 5Introduces flexible model configurations (GAT-CNN, CNN-GAT, CNN-GAT-CNN) to balance complexity and performance.
Methods
- MGraph Neural Networks (GCN and GAT) for daily feature extraction via message passing on correlation-based graphs.
- MConvolutional Neural Networks (CNN) for durational feature extraction over time windows.
- MHybrid architectures combining GNN and CNN layers in various orders (e.g., GAT-CNN, CNN-GAT, CNN-GAT-CNN).
- MThree graph pooling methods (mean, max, fully connected) for aggregating node features.
Results
- RGCN-CNNpred achieves best F-measure of 0.5954 on RUSSEL, outperforming 2D-CNNpred (0.5463) and 3D-CNNpred (0.5787).
- RGAT-CNNpred achieves best F-measure of 0.5907 on NYSE, surpassing baselines by 4-15%.
- RTrading simulation yields Sharpe ratios up to 0.2123 (combination) and CEQ returns up to 0.003535.
- RGraph-CNNpred consistently outperforms pure GNN and CNNpred across all five indices in both F-measure and trading metrics.
- RModels with 0,1,2 labeling (three-class) improve trading performance over binary labeling.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "GraphCNNpred: A stock market indices prediction using a Grap...".