Temporal Relational Ranking for Stock Prediction
Temporal Relational Ranking for Stock Prediction
The paper proposes Relational Stock Ranking (RSR), a deep learning framework for stock prediction that directly optimizes for investment revenue by formulating the problem as a ranking task. Unlike traditional approaches that treat stocks independently and use regression or classification, RSR leverages stock relations (e.g., same sector, supplier-customer) through a novel Temporal Graph Convolution (TGC) component. TGC propagates sequential embeddings from an LSTM network across a relation graph in a time-sensitive manner, allowing the model to capture dynamic influences between stocks. The framework is trained with a combined loss function that includes both pointwise regression and pairwise ranking loss to ensure accurate ranking scores. Experiments on NYSE and NASDAQ data show that RSR achieves average return ratios of 98% and 71%, respectively, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art SFM method. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of incorporating relational information and ranking optimization for stock prediction.
Highlights
- 1Formulates stock prediction as a ranking task to directly optimize for investment revenue.
- 2Proposes Relational Stock Ranking (RSR) framework integrating LSTM and Temporal Graph Convolution.
- 3Introduces Temporal Graph Convolution (TGC) to model time-sensitive stock relations.
- 4Achieves 98% and 71% average return ratios on NYSE and NASDAQ, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Methods
- MLong Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for sequential embedding from historical price data.
- MTemporal Graph Convolution (TGC) for time-aware relational embedding propagation.
- MCombined pointwise regression and pairwise ranking loss for optimization.
Results
- RRSR outperforms SFM with over 115% improvement in return ratio.
- RAverage return ratio of 98% on NYSE and 71% on NASDAQ.
- RTemporal Graph Convolution effectively captures dynamic stock relations.
- RRanking-based formulation yields more profitable stock selection than regression or classification.
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