Temporal Relational Ranking for Stock Prediction

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Temporal Relational Ranking for Stock Prediction

Fuli Feng
Xiangnan He
Xiang Wang
Cheng Luo
Yiqun Liu
Tat-Seng Chua
Published on 9/25/2018
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Factor investing
Backtesting

The paper proposes Relational Stock Ranking (RSR), a deep learning framework for stock prediction that directly optimizes for investment revenue by formulating the problem as a ranking task. Unlike traditional approaches that treat stocks independently and use regression or classification, RSR leverages stock relations (e.g., same sector, supplier-customer) through a novel Temporal Graph Convolution (TGC) component. TGC propagates sequential embeddings from an LSTM network across a relation graph in a time-sensitive manner, allowing the model to capture dynamic influences between stocks. The framework is trained with a combined loss function that includes both pointwise regression and pairwise ranking loss to ensure accurate ranking scores. Experiments on NYSE and NASDAQ data show that RSR achieves average return ratios of 98% and 71%, respectively, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art SFM method. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of incorporating relational information and ranking optimization for stock prediction.

Highlights

  • 1Formulates stock prediction as a ranking task to directly optimize for investment revenue.
  • 2Proposes Relational Stock Ranking (RSR) framework integrating LSTM and Temporal Graph Convolution.
  • 3Introduces Temporal Graph Convolution (TGC) to model time-sensitive stock relations.
  • 4Achieves 98% and 71% average return ratios on NYSE and NASDAQ, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Methods

  • M
    Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for sequential embedding from historical price data.
  • M
    Temporal Graph Convolution (TGC) for time-aware relational embedding propagation.
  • M
    Combined pointwise regression and pairwise ranking loss for optimization.

Results

  • R
    RSR outperforms SFM with over 115% improvement in return ratio.
  • R
    Average return ratio of 98% on NYSE and 71% on NASDAQ.
  • R
    Temporal Graph Convolution effectively captures dynamic stock relations.
  • R
    Ranking-based formulation yields more profitable stock selection than regression or classification.
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