Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization

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Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization

Pengqian Yu
Joon Sern Lee
Ilya Kulyatin
Zekun Shi
Sakyasingha Dasgupta
Published on 1/25/2019
Equities
Stocks
Cross-asset
AI
Deep learning
Reinforcement learning
Risk management
Backtesting
Machine learning

This paper presents a novel model-based deep reinforcement learning architecture for dynamic portfolio optimization, addressing the challenge of automating wealth allocation across consecutive trading periods based on investors' return-risk profiles. The authors design an autonomous trading agent that makes periodic investment decisions based on a global objective, moving beyond purely model-free RL approaches.

The proposed architecture integrates three specialized modules: an Infused Prediction Module (IPM) that enhances decision-making capabilities, a Generative Adversarial Data Augmentation Module (DAM) that generates synthetic data to improve training, and a Behavior Cloning Module (BCM) that incorporates imitation learning techniques. The framework is compatible with both on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms and includes a real-time back-testing and execution engine that interacts with the RL agent. Using historical real financial market data with practical trading constraints, the authors demonstrate that their model-based approach achieves superior performance in terms of robustness, profitability, and risk-sensitivity compared to both baseline trading strategies and prior model-free RL agents.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel model-based deep reinforcement learning architecture for dynamic portfolio optimization
  • 2Introduces three specialized modules: Infused Prediction Module (IPM), Generative Adversarial Data Augmentation Module (DAM), and Behavior Cloning Module (BCM)
  • 3Designs a real-time back-testing and execution engine that interacts with the RL agent
  • 4Demonstrates robustness, profitability, and risk-sensitivity using real historical financial market data
  • 5Works with both on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms

Methods

  • M
    Model-based deep reinforcement learning architecture
  • M
    Infused Prediction Module (IPM) for enhanced decision-making
  • M
    Generative Adversarial Data Augmentation Module (DAM) for synthetic data generation
  • M
    Behavior Cloning Module (BCM) for imitation learning

Results

  • R
    The proposed model outperforms baseline trading strategies in simulated trading with practical constraints
  • R
    Shows superior performance compared to model-free RL agents from prior work
  • R
    Demonstrates robustness and risk-sensitivity in dynamic portfolio optimization
  • R
    Validates effectiveness using real historical financial market data
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