Neural networks can detect model-free static arbitrage strategies

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Neural networks can detect model-free static arbitrage strategies

Ariel Neufeld
Julian Sester
Published on 6/19/2023
Derivatives
Options
Arbitrage
Machine learning
Deep learning

This paper demonstrates both theoretically and numerically that neural networks can detect model-free static arbitrage opportunities in financial markets. The authors consider a market where an agent can statically trade in options and underlying securities, with bid-ask prices and position limits. They define static arbitrage as a trading strategy with non-negative payoff in all scenarios and negative initial cost. The minimal cost to superhedge the zero payoff function is formulated as a convex semi-infinite program (CSIP). The key theoretical result (Theorem 2.5 and 2.6) shows that a single neural network can approximately solve this CSIP for all possible market parameters (strikes and prices), providing an epsilon-optimal superhedging strategy. Consequently, if the market admits arbitrage (i.e., the minimal cost is negative), the neural network outputs a strategy with negative cost, thus detecting arbitrage. The proof relies on the universal approximation theorem and a novel result that a single neural network can uniformly approximate the optimal value and feasible solutions of a class of CSIPs (Theorem 4.5). Numerically, the authors train a neural network offline on real market data and demonstrate that it can detect arbitrage and output trading strategies almost instantaneously when presented with new market conditions. This approach significantly reduces execution risk compared to traditional methods that must be re-run each time market conditions change. The experiments confirm the effectiveness and robustness of the method, making it suitable for high-frequency trading environments.

Highlights

  • 1Proves theoretically that neural networks can detect model-free static arbitrage whenever it exists in a financial market.
  • 2Demonstrates numerically using real market data that a single trained neural network can detect arbitrage and output trading strategies almost instantaneously.
  • 3Establishes that a single neural network can approximately solve a class of convex semi-infinite programs (CSIP), which includes the superhedging problem for zero payoff.
  • 4Provides an offline training algorithm that enables fast online detection, reducing execution risk in rapidly changing markets.

Methods

  • M
    Formulates static arbitrage detection as a convex semi-infinite program (CSIP) for the minimal superhedging price of zero payoff.
  • M
    Uses feedforward neural networks with continuous non-polynomial activation functions to approximate the optimal value function and corresponding trading strategies.
  • M
    Employs universal approximation theorem to show neural networks can uniformly approximate the value function and feasible strategies on compact sets.
  • M
    Trains a single neural network offline on market data (strikes and bid-ask prices) to output arbitrage strategies for any new market conditions.

Results

  • R
    A financial market admits model-free static arbitrage if and only if there exists a neural network that outputs a corresponding arbitrage strategy.
  • R
    For any epsilon > 0, there exists a single neural network that, for all market parameters (K, pi), provides an epsilon-optimal superhedging strategy for zero payoff.
  • R
    Numerical experiments on real financial data show that the neural network approach successfully detects arbitrage opportunities and provides profitable trading strategies.
  • R
    The method is robust to market changes and allows near-instantaneous execution after offline training, mitigating execution risk.
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