Hubble: An LLM-Driven Agentic Framework for Safe, Diverse, and Reproducible Alpha Factor Discovery

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Hubble: An LLM-Driven Agentic Framework for Safe, Diverse, and Reproducible Alpha Factor Discovery

Runze Shi
Shengyu Yan
Yuecheng Cai
Chengxi Lv
Published on 3/9/2026
Equities
United States (US)
AI
LLM
Machine learning
Factor investing
Stock picking
Alternative data
Risk management

Hubble is an agentic framework for automated alpha factor discovery that integrates large language models (LLMs) with a domain-specific operator language, an abstract syntax tree (AST) execution sandbox, a dual-channel retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) module, and a family-aware selection mechanism. The system restricts LLM generation to interpretable operator trees, evaluates candidates through a deterministic cross-sectional pipeline, and feeds back top formulas and family-level diagnostics to subsequent rounds. The dual-channel RAG provides positive references to encourage exploration of under-covered themes and negative references to discourage crowded templates. The scoring layer standardizes multiple metrics (RankIC, Pearson IC, turnover, etc.) and applies penalties for crowding, similarity, and family concentration, along with a novelty bonus, ensuring diversity in the final selection.

In a main experiment on a U.S. equity universe of approximately 500 stocks (840 trading days from 2022-01-01 to 2025-05-31), Hubble evaluated 104 valid candidates across three rounds with zero runtime crashes. The top five discovered factors spanned range, volatility, and price trend families, avoiding the common pitfall of converging on volume-only motifs. Out-of-sample validation on a held-out period (195 trading days from 2025-06-01 to 2026-03-13) showed that the two range factors and two volatility factors retained strong predictive performance with statistically significant HAC-adjusted t-statistics for Pearson IC and long-short returns, while the weakest trend factor decayed materially. The framework also demonstrated robustness across different LLM backends. Hubble provides a reproducible, safe, and interpretable workflow for alpha research, with persistent diagnostics artifacts enabling post-hoc analysis and financial interpretation.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces Hubble, an LLM-driven agentic framework for safe, diverse, and reproducible alpha factor discovery, combining a domain-specific language (DSL), AST sandbox, dual-channel RAG, and family-aware selection.
  • 2Achieves zero runtime crashes across 104 evaluated candidates in a main run on a U.S. equity universe of ~500 stocks, demonstrating execution safety and stability.
  • 3Discovers top factors from range, volatility, and trend families rather than crowded volume-only motifs, showing effective diversity control.
  • 4Out-of-sample validation (2025-06-01 to 2026-03-13) shows that range and volatility factors retain significance (HAC t-statistics up to 3.01 for Pearson IC), while the weakest trend factor decays.
  • 5Provides a reproducible research workflow with persistent diagnostics artifacts, enabling post-hoc analysis and interpretability.

Methods

  • M
    DSL-constrained LLM generation with AST-based sandbox for safe execution and complexity control.
  • M
    Dual-channel retrieval-augmented generation (RAG): positive RAG encourages exploration of under-covered themes, negative RAG discourages crowded templates.
  • M
    Standardized multi-metric scoring with family-aware penalties and bonuses to promote diversity and penalize crowding.
  • M
    Deterministic cross-sectional evaluation pipeline computing RankIC, Pearson IC, bucket returns, long-short spread, turnover, and HAC significance tests.

Results

  • R
    Main run: 104 valid candidates evaluated across 3 rounds with zero runtime crashes; best score achieved in round 2 (5.622).
  • R
    Top 5 factors span range (2), volatility (2), and price trend (1) families, with in-sample RankIC ranging from 0.0047 to 0.0115 and annualized RankICIR up to 0.900.
  • R
    Out-of-sample: Range-1 and Range-2 show significant Pearson IC (HAC t=2.98, 3.01) and long-short returns (HAC t=2.17, 2.31); Volatility-1 has significant RankIC (HAC t=2.25) and long-short (HAC t=2.60); Trend-1 decays (Pearson IC negative, not significant).
  • R
    Robustness check with a different LLM backend (Hunter-Alpha) yields similar factor families (range, volatility, trend) and performance, indicating backend independence.
  • R
    Family diversity is preserved in final selection: candidate pool and top-k both show distribution across multiple families, avoiding collapse into a single crowded theme.
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