ChatGPT Informed Graph Neural Network for Stock Movement Prediction

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ChatGPT Informed Graph Neural Network for Stock Movement Prediction

Zihan Chen
Lei Nico Zheng
Cheng Lu
Jialu Yuan
Di Zhu
Published on 5/28/2023
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
AI
LLM
ChatGPT
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Sentiment
Sentiment trading

This paper introduces a novel framework that combines ChatGPT's graph inference capabilities with Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to enhance stock movement prediction. The research addresses an unexplored frontier by leveraging ChatGPT to extract dynamic network structures from temporal textual data, specifically financial news, and integrating these networks into GNNs for predictive tasks. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of financial forecasting models by incorporating evolving relational information derived from textual sources.

The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art Deep Learning benchmarks in stock movement forecasting. Furthermore, portfolios constructed based on the model's outputs show superior performance, including higher annualized cumulative returns, reduced volatility, and lower maximum drawdown. These findings underscore the potential of ChatGPT for text-based network inferences and highlight its promising implications for the financial sector, suggesting a new direction for leveraging advanced NLP techniques in quantitative finance.

Highlights

  • 1Leverages ChatGPT's graph inference capabilities to extract dynamic network structures from financial news
  • 2Introduces a novel framework integrating ChatGPT with Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for stock movement prediction
  • 3Demonstrates consistent outperformance over state-of-the-art Deep Learning benchmarks in forecasting
  • 4Shows improved portfolio performance with higher annualized cumulative returns and reduced risk metrics

Methods

  • M
    Utilizes ChatGPT for inferring evolving network structures from temporal textual data (financial news)
  • M
    Integrates extracted networks into Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for predictive modeling
  • M
    Employs experimental validation on stock movement forecasting tasks with benchmark comparisons

Results

  • R
    Model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art Deep Learning-based benchmarks in stock movement prediction
  • R
    Portfolios based on model outputs achieve higher annualized cumulative returns
  • R
    Reduced volatility and maximum drawdown observed in portfolio performance
  • R
    Highlights ChatGPT's potential for text-based network inferences in financial applications
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