Pricing and calibration in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility model

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Pricing and calibration in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility model

Guido Gazzani
Julien Guyon
Published on 6/4/2024
Equities
Options
United States (US)
Machine learning
Deep learning
Volatility effect
Volatility premium
Risk management

This paper addresses computational challenges in the 4-factor path-dependent volatility (4FPDV) model of Guyon and Lekeufack (2023), which defines instantaneous volatility as a linear combination of weighted past returns and the square root of weighted past squared returns. The authors introduce an additional parameter β₁,₂ that adds volatility during upward trends, enabling the model to reproduce the implied volatility smiles of both SPX and VIX options, especially for short maturities. To overcome the difficulty of computing the VIX analytically, they develop a pathwise neural network approximation that leverages the Markovian structure of the 4FPDV model, learning the VIX as a function of the four factors and model parameters. This approximation allows for fast simulation of VIX paths and efficient joint calibration to SPX and VIX options.

The paper demonstrates that the 4FPDV model calibrates the SPX implied volatility surface remarkably well across maturities up to one year, and the joint calibration to SPX and VIX options yields accurate fits. The authors also analyze the stability of calibrated parameters over time and show that the neural network approximation can be used to price light exotic derivatives depending on both SPX and VIX. Overall, the work provides a practical and efficient framework for using the 4FPDV model in real-world applications, combining interpretability with computational tractability.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes an automatic and robust joint calibration procedure for the 4-factor path-dependent volatility (4FPDV) model to SPX and VIX options.
  • 2Develops a novel pathwise neural network approximation of the VIX that leverages the Markovian structure of the 4FPDV model, enabling fast simulation and calibration.
  • 3Introduces an additional parameter β₁,₂ to generate sufficient upside volatility, allowing the model to fit short-maturity SPX and VIX smiles simultaneously.
  • 4Demonstrates that the 4FPDV model calibrates the SPX implied volatility surface remarkably well across a wide range of maturities (up to 1 year).
  • 5Provides a stability analysis of calibrated parameters over time and shows the ability to price light exotics depending on both SPX and VIX.

Methods

  • M
    Pathwise neural network approximation of the VIX as a function of Markovian factors and model parameters.
  • M
    Joint calibration using Monte Carlo simulation with neural network surrogate for VIX pricing.
  • M
    Markovian representation of the path-dependent volatility model using four factors (R₁,₀, R₁,₁, R₂,₀, R₂,₁).
  • M
    Empirical analysis of parameter stability over time using rolling window calibration.

Results

  • R
    The 4FPDV model with the additional β₁,₂ parameter accurately fits both SPX and VIX implied volatility smiles, including short maturities.
  • R
    The neural network approximation of the VIX is highly accurate and reduces computational cost significantly compared to nested Monte Carlo.
  • R
    The model calibrates the SPX implied volatility surface with high precision for maturities up to at least 1 year.
  • R
    Calibrated parameters show reasonable stability over time, supporting the model's practical applicability.
  • R
    The model can efficiently price light exotic options that depend jointly on SPX and VIX.
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