Risk management with machine-learning-based algorithms
Risk management with machine-learning-based algorithms
This paper introduces several machine learning algorithms for hedging contingent claims in incomplete markets, where sources of incompleteness include illiquidity, non-tradable risk factors, discrete hedging dates, and proportional transaction costs. The authors propose both global optimization approaches (using feedforward and recurrent neural networks to directly minimize a loss function over the entire hedging horizon) and local dynamic programming methods (solving per-step minimization problems). The global methods are particularly novel, as they allow for arbitrary loss criteria and can handle high-dimensional state spaces without the curse of dimensionality. The most effective architecture is an augmented LSTM network that combines an LSTM cell with additional feedforward layers, which captures temporal dependencies and produces superior hedging strategies compared to feedforward networks or classical LSTMs.
Numerical experiments compare the algorithms on various payoffs using a mean squared error (MSE) criterion, with dynamic programming references computed via the StOpt library. The global augmented LSTM consistently achieves lower hedging errors than local methods, which often get trapped in local minima. The paper also demonstrates flexibility by training with asymmetrical loss functions and moment-based criteria (e.g., penalizing fourth moments of losses), showing how these criteria alter the P&L distribution. For transaction costs, the authors introduce a technique to compute the entire Pareto frontier of optimal strategies balancing average cost and variance in a single training phase by randomly combining the two criteria during stochastic gradient descent. This approach is computationally efficient and provides practitioners with a range of hedging strategies to suit their risk preferences. Overall, the work shows that deep learning can effectively solve realistic hedging problems that are intractable with classical methods, particularly in high dimensions and with complex risk criteria.
Highlights
- 1Proposes several machine learning algorithms for discrete-time hedging in incomplete markets with illiquidity, non-tradable risk factors, discrete hedging dates, and proportional transaction costs.
- 2Compares global and local neural network architectures, finding global approaches more effective and less costly than local minimization for hedging problems.
- 3Demonstrates that the augmented LSTM architecture outperforms feedforward and classical LSTM networks for hedging without constraints.
- 4Shows how to compute a Pareto frontier for mean-variance trade-off in a single training phase by randomly combining criteria during learning.
- 5Validates algorithms on high-dimensional problems with up to 30 risk factors, achieving results comparable to dynamic programming references in small dimensions.
Methods
- MGlobal optimization using feedforward neural networks (separate per time step or merged with time input) and recurrent LSTM networks (classical and augmented with feedforward layers).
- MLocal dynamic programming approach using neural networks to solve per-step minimization problems, adapted from Warin (2019).
- MMini-batch stochastic gradient descent with Adam optimizer for training neural network parameters.
- MRandom combination of mean and variance criteria during training to generate the entire Pareto frontier in one pass.
Results
- RAugmented LSTM architecture achieves the lowest mean squared hedging error compared to feedforward and classical LSTM architectures for Black-Scholes call options.
- RGlobal neural network approaches outperform local dynamic programming methods in accuracy and computational cost, avoiding local minima issues.
- RThe algorithms successfully handle non-quadratic loss functions (asymmetrical loss and moment-based criteria), producing different P&L distributions.
- RWith transaction costs, the algorithm generates a Pareto frontier of hedging strategies trading off average cost and variance in a single training phase.
- RThe augmented LSTM algorithm scales to high dimensions (up to 30 risk factors) with reasonable computational time.
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