Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns
Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns
This paper presents a deep learning approach for predicting asset returns, leveraging a hybrid architecture that combines LSTM layers with an attention mechanism. The model processes historical price and volume data, along with engineered features such as moving averages and volatility indices, to forecast future returns. The attention mechanism dynamically weights different time steps, allowing the model to focus on the most informative periods. The methodology is validated using walk-forward analysis on a diverse set of stocks and ETFs over a 10-year period, ensuring robustness against overfitting and market regime changes. Key results demonstrate that the deep learning model significantly outperforms traditional machine learning baselines, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.8 compared to 1.2 for LSTM and 0.9 for XGBoost. The model also reduces prediction error by 15% and maintains profitability during turbulent market conditions. The attention weights provide interpretability, highlighting the importance of recent price movements and trading volume. This work advances the application of deep learning in quantitative finance, offering a practical tool for asset return prediction.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a deep learning framework for predicting asset returns using historical price and volume data.
- 2Introduces a novel attention mechanism to capture temporal dependencies in financial time series.
- 3Achieves superior predictive performance compared to traditional machine learning models like LSTM and XGBoost.
- 4Demonstrates robustness across different market regimes and asset classes.
Methods
- MDeep neural network with multi-layer perceptron and LSTM layers.
- MAttention mechanism for weighting temporal features.
- MFeature engineering including technical indicators and volatility measures.
- MWalk-forward validation for time series cross-validation.
Results
- RThe proposed model achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.8, outperforming LSTM (1.2) and XGBoost (0.9).
- RReduces mean squared error by 15% compared to the best baseline.
- RAttention weights reveal that recent price changes and volume spikes are most predictive.
- RModel maintains positive excess returns during high-volatility periods.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns".