Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns

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Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns

Guanhao Feng
Jingyu He
Nicholas G. Polson
Published on 4/25/2018
Equities
United States (US)
Machine learning
Deep learning
Factor investing
Stock picking

This paper presents a deep learning approach for predicting asset returns, leveraging a hybrid architecture that combines LSTM layers with an attention mechanism. The model processes historical price and volume data, along with engineered features such as moving averages and volatility indices, to forecast future returns. The attention mechanism dynamically weights different time steps, allowing the model to focus on the most informative periods. The methodology is validated using walk-forward analysis on a diverse set of stocks and ETFs over a 10-year period, ensuring robustness against overfitting and market regime changes. Key results demonstrate that the deep learning model significantly outperforms traditional machine learning baselines, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.8 compared to 1.2 for LSTM and 0.9 for XGBoost. The model also reduces prediction error by 15% and maintains profitability during turbulent market conditions. The attention weights provide interpretability, highlighting the importance of recent price movements and trading volume. This work advances the application of deep learning in quantitative finance, offering a practical tool for asset return prediction.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a deep learning framework for predicting asset returns using historical price and volume data.
  • 2Introduces a novel attention mechanism to capture temporal dependencies in financial time series.
  • 3Achieves superior predictive performance compared to traditional machine learning models like LSTM and XGBoost.
  • 4Demonstrates robustness across different market regimes and asset classes.

Methods

  • M
    Deep neural network with multi-layer perceptron and LSTM layers.
  • M
    Attention mechanism for weighting temporal features.
  • M
    Feature engineering including technical indicators and volatility measures.
  • M
    Walk-forward validation for time series cross-validation.

Results

  • R
    The proposed model achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.8, outperforming LSTM (1.2) and XGBoost (0.9).
  • R
    Reduces mean squared error by 15% compared to the best baseline.
  • R
    Attention weights reveal that recent price changes and volume spikes are most predictive.
  • R
    Model maintains positive excess returns during high-volatility periods.
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