Structured Event Representation and Stock Return Predictability

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Structured Event Representation and Stock Return Predictability

Gang Li
Dandan Qiao
Mingxuan Zheng
Published on 12/22/2025
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
AI
LLM
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Event Driven
Sentiment

This paper introduces a novel deep learning model for stock return prediction that leverages structured event representation (SER) and attention mechanisms. The authors use a pre-trained large language model (LLM) to extract event features from news articles, which are then structured into a format suitable for the SER model. The model employs attention mechanisms to weigh the importance of different events and their features, enabling effective cross-sectional stock return prediction. The key contribution is the demonstration that structured event representations, derived from LLMs, significantly enhance predictive performance and interpretability compared to existing text-driven models. The empirical results show that the SER-based model achieves superior out-of-sample performance, highlighting the value of structured inputs in financial forecasting. Additionally, the interpretable feature structures allow for deeper analysis of the economic mechanisms driving stock return predictability, offering insights into how news events impact stock prices. The findings underscore the potential of combining LLMs with structured modeling approaches for quantitative finance applications.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel deep learning model using structured event representation (SER) and attention mechanisms for stock return prediction.
  • 2Leverages large language models (LLMs) to extract event features from news articles, enhancing text-based prediction.
  • 3Achieves superior out-of-sample performance compared to existing text-driven models.
  • 4Provides highly interpretable feature structures to examine the mechanisms behind stock return predictability.
  • 5Demonstrates the crucial benefit of structured model inputs in financial forecasting.

Methods

  • M
    Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for event feature extraction from news articles.
  • M
    Structured event representation (SER) model with attention mechanisms for cross-sectional stock return prediction.
  • M
    Out-of-sample performance evaluation against existing text-driven models.

Results

  • R
    SER-based model outperforms other text-driven models in forecasting stock returns out of sample.
  • R
    Structured event features provide high interpretability for understanding return predictability mechanisms.
  • R
    Event features extracted by LLMs are effective for text-based stock return prediction.
  • R
    Structured model inputs significantly improve prediction performance over unstructured approaches.
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