Stock Movement Prediction with Multimodal Stable Fusion via Gated Cross-Attention Mechanism
Stock Movement Prediction with Multimodal Stable Fusion via Gated Cross-Attention Mechanism
The paper presents MSGCA (Multimodal Stable Fusion with Gated Cross-Attention), a novel framework for fine-grained stock movement prediction that integrates three modalities: numerical indicator sequences (e.g., prices), textual dynamic documents (news and tweets), and a relational graph (industry sectors). The framework consists of three phases: (1) a trimodal encoding module using MLP, a pre-trained LLM, and GAT to project each modality into a unified latent space; (2) a stable fusion module employing two gated cross-attention networks, where the primary modality (indicators) guides the sequential integration of document and graph features, effectively mitigating data sparsity and semantic conflicts; and (3) a prediction module that reduces temporal and feature dimensions via MLPs to output probabilities for three movement trends: up, flat, and down. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MSGCA significantly outperforms existing unimodal, bimodal, and multimodal baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of 8.1% to 31.6%. The gated cross-attention mechanism is key to stable fusion, as it leverages the most reliable modality to filter noise from others, addressing the inconsistency challenges common in multimodal financial data. This work fills a gap in fine-grained multimodal stock prediction and offers a robust solution for practical investment strategies.
Highlights
- 1Introduces MSGCA, a novel framework for fine-grained stock movement prediction (up, flat, down) using three modalities: indicator sequences, dynamic documents, and relational graphs.
- 2Proposes a gated cross-attention mechanism for stable multimodal fusion, where the primary modality (price indicators) guides the integration of other modalities to reduce noise and semantic conflicts.
- 3Achieves state-of-the-art performance with improvements of 8.1%, 6.1%, 21.7%, and 31.6% on four multimodal datasets compared to existing methods.
- 4Addresses data sparsity and semantic conflicts between modalities without explicit noise-handling modules, enhancing fusion stability.
Methods
- MTrimodal encoding: MLP for indicator sequences, pre-trained LLM (text-embedding-ada-002) for dynamic documents, and Graph Attention Network (GAT) for relational graphs.
- MGated cross-attention fusion: Two-stage fusion where indicator features guide the integration of document and graph features via gated cross-attention blocks.
- MFine-grained prediction: Two MLP networks perform temporal and feature dimension reductions to output probabilities for up, flat, and down trends.
Results
- RMSGCA outperforms leading baselines by 8.1%, 6.1%, 21.7%, and 31.6% on four multimodal datasets, respectively.
- RThe gated cross-attention mechanism effectively reduces noise and semantic conflicts, leading to more stable fusion compared to simple concatenation or co-attention.
- RIncorporating three modalities (indicators, documents, graph) yields higher accuracy than unimodal or bimodal approaches.
- RFine-grained prediction (three classes) provides more practical insights than binary classification, capturing sideways trends.
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