Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book

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Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book

Ioane Muni Toke
Nakahiro Yoshida
Published on 2/12/2016
Equities
High frequency trading
Machine learning

This paper presents a comprehensive parametric model for simulating limit order books, focusing on the intensities of order flows. The authors model market orders, limit orders, and cancellations as point processes with intensities that depend on the state of the order book, specifically the spread and volume at the best quote (for market orders) or total volume (for limit orders). The intensities take an exponential quadratic form in the logarithms of these variables, ensuring non-negativity and enabling efficient maximum likelihood estimation. For cancellations, a novel 'priority index' is introduced, representing the volume ahead of an order in the queue, which effectively captures the selection of orders to cancel. Limit order placement is modeled using a Gaussian mixture distribution, allowing for multi-modal patterns observed in empirical data. The model is estimated on high-frequency data from six liquid stocks on Euronext Paris over ten trading days. Results show that the proposed intensities fit empirical patterns well, including the decrease of market order intensity with spread and the increase of limit order intensity with spread. Simulations demonstrate that the model reproduces key stylized facts of limit order books, such as the distribution of spreads and volumes, outperforming a standard Poisson benchmark. The work provides a flexible and realistic framework for limit order book simulation, useful for market microstructure research and practical applications.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a parametric model for limit order book simulation with state-dependent intensities for limit orders, market orders, and cancellations.
  • 2Introduces a novel 'priority index' concept for modeling the selection of orders to cancel.
  • 3Uses exponential quadratic forms for intensities, enabling maximum likelihood estimation.
  • 4Models limit order placement with a Gaussian mixture to capture multi-modality.
  • 5Validates the model on six liquid stocks from Euronext Paris, showing good fit compared to empirical data and Poisson benchmarks.

Methods

  • M
    Point process modeling with state-dependent intensities (exponential quadratic functions of spread and volume).
  • M
    Maximum likelihood estimation for parameter inference.
  • M
    Gaussian mixture model for limit order placement distribution.
  • M
    Priority index model for cancellation selection based on queue position.

Results

  • R
    Market order intensity decreases with spread and increases when best quote volume is low, captured by the exponential quadratic model.
  • R
    Limit order intensity increases with spread and decreases with total book volume, with flexible shapes across stocks.
  • R
    Cancellation intensity is well modeled by the priority index, which accounts for time-price priority.
  • R
    Simulations reproduce key empirical features of limit order books, outperforming Poisson benchmarks.
  • R
    Parameter estimates are significant for most stocks, with standard errors indicating good fit.
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