Can Blindfolded LLMs Still Trade? An Anonymization-First Framework for Portfolio Optimization

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Can Blindfolded LLMs Still Trade? An Anonymization-First Framework for Portfolio Optimization

Joohyoung Jeon
Hongchul Lee
Published on 3/18/2026
Equities
Stocks
AI
LLM
Multi-Agent
Machine learning
Reinforcement learning
Stock picking

BlindTrade proposes an anonymization-first framework for portfolio optimization that addresses two key sources of spurious performance in LLM-based trading: memorization bias from ticker-specific pre-training and survivorship bias from flawed backtesting. The framework anonymizes all stock identifiers (tickers, company names, product names) using synthetic IDs, then employs four specialized LLM agents (Momentum, News-Event, Mean-Reversion, Risk-Regime) to evaluate stocks from different perspectives. Each agent outputs scores and reasoning under strict knowledge cutoff and anonymized inputs. A Semantic Graph Encoder (SemGAT) constructs a dynamic graph using sector connections and reasoning embedding similarity, enabling inter-stock relationship learning. Finally, a PPO-DSR reinforcement learning policy determines portfolio weights with an intent mechanism that selects defensive/neutral/aggressive modes based on cross-sectional agent consensus.

On 2025 YTD S&P 500 data (through August 1, 2025), BlindTrade achieves an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.40±0.22 and cumulative return of 32.22%±5.21% across 20 seeds, outperforming all benchmarks including SPY (Sharpe 0.64), equal-weight ETF (0.74), and momentum strategies (0.89). Ablation studies confirm that LLM features contribute +0.26 Sharpe, graph structure contributes +0.78, and RL cost-aware execution is essential for profitability. Negative control experiments (random shuffling of GNN scores) cause performance to collapse, validating that signals reflect genuine predictive structure rather than leakage. IC analysis shows that LLM agents improve predictive power over raw features, with the Risk-Regime agent showing the strongest improvement. The framework also demonstrates interpretability through intent modes and reasoning embeddings, though it exhibits market-regime dependency—excelling in volatile conditions but underperforming in strong bull markets. Overall, BlindTrade provides a rigorous methodology for building trustworthy LLM trading systems by ensuring predictions reflect legitimate market understanding rather than memorized associations.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces BlindTrade, an anonymization-first framework that replaces tickers and company names with synthetic identifiers to block LLM memorization bias.
  • 2Achieves Sharpe ratio of 1.40±0.22 on 2025 YTD S&P 500 data, outperforming all benchmarks including SPY (0.64) and momentum strategies.
  • 3Validates signal legitimacy through negative control experiments (random shuffling) and IC analysis, confirming predictions reflect genuine market patterns.
  • 4Proposes a Semantic Graph Encoder (SemGAT) that constructs dynamic graphs using LLM reasoning embeddings and sector information, enabling inter-stock relationship learning under anonymization.
  • 5Demonstrates that LLM agents provide additional predictive power beyond raw technical indicators, with graph structure contributing most to performance.

Methods

  • M
    Anonymization protocol: replaces tickers, company names, and proper nouns with synthetic identifiers (e.g., 'AAPL' → 'STOCK_0026') using Google Knowledge Graph API.
  • M
    Multi-agent LLM system: four specialized agents (Momentum, News-Event, Mean-Reversion, Risk-Regime) generate scores and reasoning under strict knowledge cutoff and anonymized inputs.
  • M
    Semantic Graph Encoder (SemGAT): 2-layer GATv2 with sector edges and semantic edges based on cosine similarity of LLM reasoning embeddings (threshold 0.75).
  • M
    PPO-DSR reinforcement learning: uses Differential Sharpe Ratio reward, intent head for risk posture (defensive/neutral/aggressive), and Dirichlet distribution for portfolio weights.

Results

  • R
    BlindTrade achieves annualized Sharpe 1.40±0.22, cumulative return 32.22%±5.21%, and beats SPY in all 20 seeds on 2025 YTD (145 trading days).
  • R
    Ablation studies show removing LLM features drops Sharpe to 1.14 (Δ=-0.26), removing graph structure drops to 0.62 (Δ=-0.78), and RL reduces turnover from 139%/day to 1.7%/day.
  • R
    Negative control (random shuffling of GNN scores) collapses RankIC from 0.015 to 0.0004 and Sharpe from -1.17 to -1.48, confirming signal structure is legitimate.
  • R
    IC analysis shows Risk-Regime agent has strongest positive ΔIC (+0.017) with LLM IC = +0.011 (p<0.0001); average LLM IC improves from -0.007 to +0.005.
  • R
    Extended OOS (2024-2025) reveals market-regime dependency: outperforms in volatile conditions (2025 Sharpe 1.02 vs SPY 0.54) but underperforms in bull markets (2024 Sharpe 0.34 vs SPY 1.70).
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