Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?

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Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?

Andrew Y. Chen
Alejandro Lopez-Lira
Tom Zimmermann
Published on 12/20/2022
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Stock picking
Factor investing
Momentum
Value investment
Machine learning

This paper empirically tests whether peer-reviewed economic theory helps identify cross-sectional stock return predictors that are robust out-of-sample. The authors classify 199 published predictors into three groups based on their theoretical explanation (risk, mispricing, or agnostic) and compare their post-sample performance to a set of naively data-mined predictors constructed from accounting variables. The main finding is that all groups exhibit approximately 50% post-sample decay, with no significant advantage for theory-based predictors over data-mined ones. This result holds even when focusing on risk-based predictors, which are often thought to be more stable. The authors also find that only 18% of published predictors are attributed to risk, while the majority are linked to mispricing or are agnostic. The event-time patterns of returns are strikingly similar between published and data-mined predictors, suggesting that academic research may be largely documenting patterns that emerge from data mining rather than providing unique insights. The paper concludes that peer review does not effectively protect against data mining bias, and that naive data mining can produce predictors with comparable out-of-sample performance to those published in top journals.

Highlights

  • 1Peer-reviewed return predictors, whether attributed to risk, mispricing, or agnostic origins, exhibit about 50% post-sample decay, similar to naive data-mined predictors.
  • 2Naive data mining from accounting variables generates out-of-sample returns nearly as strong as published predictors, challenging the notion that theory protects against data mining bias.
  • 3Only 18% of published predictors are attributed to risk; the majority are attributed to mispricing or have uncertain origins.
  • 4Published and data-mined predictors show similar event-time patterns, including pre-publication return increases and post-publication decay.
  • 5Data mining uncovers themes (investment, issuance, accruals) that mirror those in the academic literature.

Methods

  • M
    Classification of 199 published predictors into risk, mispricing, or agnostic groups based on original paper explanations.
  • M
    Naive data mining: forming ~29,000 long-short decile strategies by dividing or differencing 242 accounting variables, then selecting those matching published predictors' in-sample t-statistics and mean returns.
  • M
    Out-of-sample performance comparison across predictor groups using post-sample mean returns and decay rates.
  • M
    Event-time analysis of returns around the end of original in-sample periods.

Results

  • R
    Post-sample decay is approximately 50% for all predictor groups (risk, mispricing, agnostic, and data-mined), with no significant difference between theory-based and data-mined predictors.
  • R
    The hypothesis that risk-based theory prevents post-sample decay is strongly rejected (p-value < 0.1%).
  • R
    Data-mined predictors achieve out-of-sample returns only slightly lower than published predictors.
  • R
    Published and data-mined returns exhibit similar event-time dynamics: rising before the sample end, falling sharply in the first 5 years out-of-sample, and flattening thereafter.
  • R
    Data mining reproduces common academic themes such as investment, issuance, and accruals.
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