Quantum Machine Learning methods for Fourier-based distribution estimation with application in option pricing

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Quantum Machine Learning methods for Fourier-based distribution estimation with application in option pricing

Fernando Alonso
Álvaro Leitao
Carlos Vázquez
Published on 10/22/2025
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
AI

This paper presents two novel hybrid classical-quantum methods for pricing financial derivatives by leveraging Quantum Machine Learning (QML) models based on Parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs). The core idea is to approximate the probability distribution of the underlying asset (either its probability density function or cumulative distribution function) using truncated Fourier series, whose coefficients are learned from market data via PQC-based quantum models. The option price is then computed as a sum of products of Fourier coefficients from the payoff and the distribution, avoiding direct Monte Carlo simulation. The authors provide theoretical justification by invoking universal approximation theorems for PQCs, which guarantee convergence in various function spaces (C0, Lp, Hk). Numerical experiments compare the proposed methods against Quantum Accelerated Monte Carlo (QAMC) as a benchmark, analyzing the impact of data size and PQC dimensionality on accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the QML-based methods achieve remarkable accuracy, making them a competitive quantum alternative for derivative pricing, with the CDF-based formulation offering enhanced stability for discontinuous payoffs.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces two hybrid classical-quantum methods for option pricing using Fourier series reconstructed from PQC-based QML models.
  • 2Proposes PDF and CDF approximation formulations to estimate probability distributions from market data.
  • 3Provides theoretical grounding via universal approximation theorems for PQCs in function spaces.
  • 4Benchmarks against Quantum Accelerated Monte Carlo (QAMC) to assess computational cost and accuracy.
  • 5Demonstrates competitive accuracy, positioning QML as a viable quantum alternative for derivatives valuation.

Methods

  • M
    Parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) as universal approximators for Fourier series coefficients.
  • M
    Fourier series expansion of probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF).
  • M
    Hybrid classical-quantum training: classical optimization of PQC parameters to minimize empirical risk.
  • M
    Quantum Accelerated Monte Carlo (QAMC) with amplitude estimation for benchmark comparison.

Results

  • R
    Proposed methods achieve high accuracy in Fourier coefficient extraction and option pricing.
  • R
    Performance depends on data size and PQC dimensionality (number of qubits/layers).
  • R
    CDF-based formulation offers numerical stability for piecewise smooth payoffs with discontinuities.
  • R
    QML methods provide a competitive alternative to QAMC in terms of accuracy and flexibility.
  • R
    Theoretical convergence guarantees in C0, Lp, and Hk norms support practical applicability.
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