Can LLM-based Financial Investing Strategies Outperform the Market in Long Run?
Can LLM-based Financial Investing Strategies Outperform the Market in Long Run?
This paper critically evaluates the long-term robustness of LLM-based financial investing strategies by introducing FINSABER, a backtesting framework designed to mitigate survivorship, look-ahead, and data-snooping biases. The framework integrates multi-source data (prices, news, filings) from 2000 to 2024, includes delisted stocks, and employs a two-step pipeline combining selection-based and timing-based strategies over rolling windows. The authors replicate prior evaluations on select symbols (TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, MSFT) and short periods, finding that LLM advantages are inconsistent and often matched by traditional benchmarks. Extending the evaluation to two decades reveals that Buy and Hold and other simple strategies frequently outperform LLM agents. A broader composite evaluation over 91+ symbols shows that LLM strategies yield negative or near-zero Sharpe ratios, indicating poor risk-adjusted returns. Market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, missing upside, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring disproportionate losses. The findings underscore the need for regime-aware and adaptive risk management in LLM-based trading, rather than merely scaling model complexity. The paper provides a robust benchmarking framework and empirical evidence that current LLM investing strategies do not reliably outperform the market in the long run.
Highlights
- 1Proposes FINSABER, a comprehensive backtesting framework for LLM-based investing strategies that mitigates survivorship, look-ahead, and data-snooping biases.
- 2Demonstrates that previously reported LLM advantages vanish under broader cross-sections and longer evaluation periods (2004–2024).
- 3Reveals that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets and overly aggressive in bear markets, leading to underperformance.
- 4Provides guidance for future LLM strategy design, emphasizing regime-awareness and adaptive risk management over architectural complexity.
Methods
- MFINSABER framework with multi-source data (prices, news, filings) from 2000–2024, including delisted stocks.
- MTwo-step backtesting pipeline: selection-based strategies (e.g., Random Five, Momentum, Volatility, FinCon) followed by timing-based strategies (rule-based, ML, RL, LLM).
- MRolling-window evaluation with bias mitigation: historical constituent lists, explicit inclusion of delisted stocks, and extended time horizons.
- MEvaluation metrics: Annualized Return, Cumulative Return, Annualized Volatility, Maximum Drawdown, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio.
Results
- RLLM strategies (FinMem, FinAgent) only outperform on TSLA in the short period (Oct 2022–Apr 2023); traditional benchmarks remain competitive on other symbols.
- ROver the extended period (2004–2024), Buy and Hold and other traditional strategies match or outperform LLM strategies on NFLX, AMZN, and MSFT.
- RUnder the composite evaluation (91+ symbols), LLM strategies show negative or near-zero Sharpe ratios, underperforming simple rule-based and ML baselines.
- RRegime analysis reveals LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets (missed gains) and overly aggressive in bear markets (heavy losses).
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