SARF: Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with Sentiment-Augmented Random Forest

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SARF: Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with Sentiment-Augmented Random Forest

Saber Talazadeh
Dragan Perakovic
Published on 9/22/2024
Stocks
Equities
Machine learning
AI
Sentiment
Stock picking
Market timing

This paper introduces SARF (Sentiment-Augmented Random Forest), a novel approach for stock market prediction that integrates sentiment analysis from FinGPT, a generative AI model, with the traditional Random Forest algorithm. The authors argue that relying solely on empirical analysis yields unsustainable results, and machine learning, particularly Random Forest, can enhance predictions. SARF leverages FinGPT to extract nuanced financial sentiments from textual data, which are then incorporated as features into the Random Forest framework. The methodology is evaluated against conventional Random Forest and LSTM models, demonstrating that SARF achieves an average accuracy improvement of 9.23% and lower prediction errors in forecasting stock market movements. The study highlights the potential of combining generative AI sentiment analysis with ensemble learning for more accurate financial forecasting, offering a practical tool for investors and analysts. The results underscore the importance of sentiment features in capturing market dynamics that traditional technical indicators may miss.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes Sentiment-Augmented Random Forest (SARF) integrating FinGPT sentiment features with Random Forest for stock prediction.
  • 2Achieves average accuracy improvement of 9.23% over conventional Random Forest and LSTM models.
  • 3Demonstrates lower prediction errors in forecasting stock market movements.
  • 4Leverages FinGPT, a generative AI model, for nuanced financial sentiment analysis.

Methods

  • M
    Sentiment analysis using FinGPT generative AI model to extract sentiment features from financial text.
  • M
    Random Forest algorithm augmented with sentiment features (SARF).
  • M
    Comparison with baseline Random Forest and LSTM models.

Results

  • R
    SARF outperforms conventional Random Forest and LSTM models with an average accuracy improvement of 9.23%.
  • R
    SARF achieves lower prediction errors compared to baseline models.
  • R
    Integration of sentiment features significantly enhances stock trend prediction performance.
  • R
    The approach demonstrates the value of generative AI sentiment analysis in financial forecasting.
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