Short-time expansion of characteristic functions in a rough volatility setting with applications

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Short-time expansion of characteristic functions in a rough volatility setting with applications

Carsten H. Chong
Viktor Todorov
Published on 8/1/2022
Options
Derivatives
Volatility effect
Machine learning

This paper derives a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of an Itô semimartingale increment over a shrinking time interval, under a very general setting that allows for rough volatility and jumps of arbitrary activity. The spot characteristics, including volatility and jump size functions, can exhibit local behavior like fractional Brownian motion, and the model encompasses many popular rough volatility models. The expansion shows how different features—drift, diffusion, jumps, and roughness—contribute at different orders, and importantly, that contributions from jumps and volatility roughness can be of the same asymptotic order but differ in their dependence on the characteristic function exponent, enabling their separation.

As an application, the authors develop a nonparametric estimator of the Hurst parameter of the diffusive volatility process using portfolios of short-dated options. The estimator exploits the decay rate of the argument of the conditional characteristic function as the time horizon shrinks. When the underlying asset price contains jumps, a bias correction is proposed by differencing characteristic functions over different short horizons. Numerical experiments illustrate the accuracy of the expansions and the performance of the estimator. The results have implications for volatility estimation in rough settings, where ignoring higher-order terms can lead to significant errors.

Highlights

  • 1Derives a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of an Itô semimartingale increment over a shrinking time interval, allowing for rough volatility and jumps of arbitrary activity.
  • 2Shows that contributions from jumps and volatility roughness can be of the same asymptotic order but differ in their dependence on the characteristic function exponent, enabling separation.
  • 3Develops a nonparametric estimator of the Hurst parameter of the diffusive volatility process using portfolios of short-dated options.
  • 4Provides a general framework that encompasses many rough volatility models, including rough fractional stochastic volatility and rough Heston models.
  • 5Demonstrates that in rough settings, the higher-order terms are more prominent, leading to larger errors if ignored in volatility estimation.

Methods

  • M
    Higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function using Malliavin calculus and stochastic analysis for rough paths.
  • M
    Option-based estimation of the conditional characteristic function via portfolios of options with different strikes and same maturity.
  • M
    Nonparametric estimation of the Hurst parameter from the decay rate of the argument of the characteristic function as the time horizon shrinks.
  • M
    Bias correction for price jumps by differencing characteristic functions over different short time horizons.

Results

  • R
    The asymptotic expansion reveals distinct roles of spot characteristics: drift, diffusion, jumps, and roughness contribute at different orders.
  • R
    The contribution of volatility roughness and jumps can be of the same asymptotic order, but they are distinguishable via their dependence on the characteristic function exponent.
  • R
    A consistent estimator of the Hurst parameter of volatility is constructed from short-dated options, with a rate of convergence depending on the roughness parameter.
  • R
    In the presence of price jumps, a bias correction via differencing of characteristic functions over different horizons is feasible but leads to information loss.
  • R
    Numerical experiments confirm the accuracy of the higher-order expansions and the feasibility of the Hurst parameter estimator.
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