Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization
Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization
This paper proposes a new optimization-based method for finding statistical arbitrage (stat-arb) portfolios that can include multiple assets. The problem is formulated as maximizing the portfolio's price volatility subject to the price staying within a fixed band and a leverage constraint. This nonconvex problem is approximately solved using the convex-concave procedure, a sequential convex programming method that linearizes the objective and solves a linear program at each iteration. The method scales to large asset universes and can find stat-arbs with ten or more assets.
The paper also introduces moving-band stat-arbs, where the band midpoint varies over time based on the recent average portfolio price, similar to Bollinger bands but applied to a constructed portfolio. The same convex-concave procedure is extended to handle this case. Numerical experiments on real data show that moving-band stat-arbs outperform fixed-band stat-arbs in terms of out-of-sample profitability and remain profitable for longer periods. The approach directly optimizes for high variance and mean reversion without relying on co-integration or statistical testing, offering a practical and scalable tool for quantitative finance.
Highlights
- 1Formulates statistical arbitrage search as a nonconvex optimization problem maximizing portfolio volatility subject to a price band constraint and leverage limit.
- 2Introduces moving-band statistical arbitrage, where the band midpoint varies over time based on recent average portfolio price.
- 3Uses the convex-concave procedure to approximately solve the nonconvex optimization, scaling to large asset universes.
- 4Demonstrates that moving-band stat-arbs outperform fixed-band stat-arbs in out-of-sample profitability.
Methods
- MConvex-concave procedure: sequential convex programming that linearizes the convex objective and solves a linear program at each iteration.
- MCleanup phase: removes small portfolio weights to achieve sparser portfolios.
- MLinear trading policy: holdings proportional to the difference between band midpoint and current price.
Results
- RThe optimization problem can be solved approximately in a few tens of iterations using the convex-concave procedure.
- RMoving-band stat-arbs remain profitable for longer out-of-sample periods compared to fixed-band stat-arbs.
- RThe method can find stat-arbs with ten or more assets, beyond exhaustive search capabilities.
- RMultiple distinct stat-arbs can be found from the same universe by using different random initializations.
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