Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization

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Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization

Kasper Johansson
Thomas Schmelzer
Stephen Boyd
Published on 2/12/2024
Equities
Derivatives
Arbitrage
Machine learning
Pairs trading

This paper proposes a new optimization-based method for finding statistical arbitrage (stat-arb) portfolios that can include multiple assets. The problem is formulated as maximizing the portfolio's price volatility subject to the price staying within a fixed band and a leverage constraint. This nonconvex problem is approximately solved using the convex-concave procedure, a sequential convex programming method that linearizes the objective and solves a linear program at each iteration. The method scales to large asset universes and can find stat-arbs with ten or more assets.

The paper also introduces moving-band stat-arbs, where the band midpoint varies over time based on the recent average portfolio price, similar to Bollinger bands but applied to a constructed portfolio. The same convex-concave procedure is extended to handle this case. Numerical experiments on real data show that moving-band stat-arbs outperform fixed-band stat-arbs in terms of out-of-sample profitability and remain profitable for longer periods. The approach directly optimizes for high variance and mean reversion without relying on co-integration or statistical testing, offering a practical and scalable tool for quantitative finance.

Highlights

  • 1Formulates statistical arbitrage search as a nonconvex optimization problem maximizing portfolio volatility subject to a price band constraint and leverage limit.
  • 2Introduces moving-band statistical arbitrage, where the band midpoint varies over time based on recent average portfolio price.
  • 3Uses the convex-concave procedure to approximately solve the nonconvex optimization, scaling to large asset universes.
  • 4Demonstrates that moving-band stat-arbs outperform fixed-band stat-arbs in out-of-sample profitability.

Methods

  • M
    Convex-concave procedure: sequential convex programming that linearizes the convex objective and solves a linear program at each iteration.
  • M
    Cleanup phase: removes small portfolio weights to achieve sparser portfolios.
  • M
    Linear trading policy: holdings proportional to the difference between band midpoint and current price.

Results

  • R
    The optimization problem can be solved approximately in a few tens of iterations using the convex-concave procedure.
  • R
    Moving-band stat-arbs remain profitable for longer out-of-sample periods compared to fixed-band stat-arbs.
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    The method can find stat-arbs with ten or more assets, beyond exhaustive search capabilities.
  • R
    Multiple distinct stat-arbs can be found from the same universe by using different random initializations.
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