A Hybrid Model for Stock Market Forecasting: Integrating News Sentiment and Time Series Data with Graph Neural Networks
A Hybrid Model for Stock Market Forecasting: Integrating News Sentiment and Time Series Data with Graph Neural Networks
This paper presents a hybrid model for stock market forecasting that integrates news sentiment with historical time series data using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The authors construct a heterogeneous graph where nodes represent companies, news articles, and industries, with edges capturing relationships such as company-article associations and industry membership. Historical stock data is encoded via an LSTM, while news titles are embedded using a language model (e.g., BERT). GraphSAGE is employed to aggregate information from neighboring nodes, enabling the model to learn complex interactions between companies, news events, and industries. Two prediction targets are evaluated: a binary direction-of-change label (up/down) and a significance-based label indicating the magnitude of change.
Experiments on US equities and Bloomberg datasets demonstrate that the GNN model outperforms a baseline LSTM, achieving 53% accuracy on the direction-of-change task and a 4% precision gain on the significance-based task. Notably, the study finds that companies with more associated news articles yield higher prediction accuracy, and that news headlines contain stronger predictive signals than full articles, suggesting that concise summaries capture market-relevant information more effectively. The results highlight the value of integrating multimodal data and relational structure for stock market prediction, offering a promising direction for future research in financial forecasting.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a hybrid model integrating news sentiment and time series data using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for stock market forecasting.
- 2Constructs a heterogeneous graph with nodes representing companies, articles, and industries, leveraging GraphSAGE for relational learning.
- 3Achieves 53% accuracy on binary direction-of-change prediction and a 4% precision gain on significance-based labels over LSTM baseline.
- 4Demonstrates that news headlines provide stronger predictive signals than full articles, and companies with more news yield higher accuracy.
- 5Validated on US equities and Bloomberg datasets, showing the effectiveness of multimodal data integration.
Methods
- MGraph Neural Network (GNN) with GraphSAGE for heterogeneous graph representation learning.
- MLSTM encoder for historical stock price time series.
- MLanguage model (e.g., BERT) for embedding news titles and articles.
- MTwo prediction targets: binary direction-of-change and significance-based labels.
Results
- RGNN outperforms LSTM baseline with 53% accuracy on direction-of-change prediction.
- R4% precision improvement on significance-based labels compared to LSTM.
- RCompanies with higher news coverage exhibit better prediction accuracy.
- RHeadlines yield stronger predictive signals than full article text.
- RThe hybrid model effectively captures cross-company and industry-level interactions.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "A Hybrid Model for Stock Market Forecasting: Integrating New...".