Limit Order Book Dynamics and Order Size Modelling Using Compound Hawkes Process

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Limit Order Book Dynamics and Order Size Modelling Using Compound Hawkes Process

Konark Jain
Nick Firoozye
Jonathan Kochems
Philip Treleaven
Published on 12/14/2023
Equities
United States (US)
High frequency trading
Machine learning

This paper introduces a novel Compound Hawkes Process (CHP) for modeling Limit Order Book (LOB) dynamics, addressing the limitation of constant order sizes in traditional Hawkes models. The authors propose a 12-dimensional Hawkes process where each event type (limit, cancel, market orders) at six price levels around the best bid and ask has its own intensity and order size distribution. The order sizes are sampled from calibrated distributions that capture empirical spikes at round numbers. To ensure the bid-ask spread remains positive, in-spread order intensities are modulated by a power law function of the current spread-in-ticks. The model also incorporates time-of-day seasonality and allows for inhibitory cross-excitation kernels using an enhanced non-parametric calibration method.

The methodology is validated using Level 2 NASDAQ data for Apple Inc. The results show that the CHP model accurately replicates key empirical properties, including the concave market impact function, volatility clustering, and correlated order flow. The paper provides a detailed calibration procedure and compares the model against several baselines, demonstrating superior performance. This work contributes to quantitative finance by offering a transparent, mathematically descriptive LOB simulator that captures both event timing and order size dynamics, making it suitable for applications such as market impact analysis and high-frequency trading strategy backtesting.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel Compound Hawkes Process (CHP) for Limit Order Book (LOB) modeling, where each event has an order size sampled from a calibrated distribution.
  • 2Formulates the process to ensure the bid-ask spread remains positive by conditioning in-spread order intensities on the current spread-in-ticks.
  • 3Incorporates time-of-day dependency and inhibitory cross-excitation kernels using an enhanced non-parametric calibration method.
  • 4Demonstrates that the simulator replicates the concave market impact function observed empirically.
  • 5Provides a comprehensive calibration and validation using Level 2 NASDAQ data for Apple Inc.

Methods

  • M
    Compound Hawkes Process with 12 dimensions representing order types (limit, cancel, market) at six price levels around the best bid and ask.
  • M
    Non-parametric estimation of Hawkes kernels allowing for inhibitory cross-excitations.
  • M
    Empirical calibration of order size distributions (with spikes at round numbers) for each event type, using stationary distributions.
  • M
    Spread-dependent intensity modulation via a power law function to enforce non-negative spread.

Results

  • R
    Order size distributions exhibit spikes at round numbers (e.g., 40% of market orders and 60% of limit orders are of size 100).
  • R
    97.4% of in-spread orders occur 1 tick away from the best quote, and 97.5% of price changes involve a 1-tick move.
  • R
    The CHP model replicates the concave market impact function, a key stylized fact of financial markets.
  • R
    Calibration on Apple stock shows good fit to empirical inter-event times and order size distributions.
  • R
    The model outperforms baselines in capturing LOB dynamics, including volatility clustering and correlated order flow.
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