ReLaMix: Residual Latency-Aware Mixing for Delay-Robust Financial Time-Series Forecasting

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ReLaMix: Residual Latency-Aware Mixing for Delay-Robust Financial Time-Series Forecasting

Tianyou Lai
Wentao Yue
Jiayi Zhou
Chaoyuan Hao
Lingke Chang
Qingyu Mao
Zhibo Niu
Qilei Li
Published on 3/21/2026
Crypto
Cross-asset
Machine learning
Deep learning
High frequency trading
Alternative data

ReLaMix addresses the challenge of high-frequency financial time-series forecasting under realistic latency-induced observation staleness, where signals are corrupted by a Zero-Order Hold (ZOH) mechanism that produces repeated stepwise artifacts. Unlike standard missing-value settings, ZOH stagnation introduces statistical bias and redundancy that mislead forecasting models. The proposed framework integrates an Information Bottleneck compression module that projects noisy inputs into a compact latent space to filter out stale redundancy, followed by stacked Residual Latency-Aware Mixing Blocks. Each block combines temporal mixing via linear transformations along the time dimension with feature mixing through an expand-compress mechanism (32→64→32 dimensions) to capture nonlinear market dynamics while maintaining efficiency. Multi-level skip connections further enhance gradient flow and information preservation.

Experiments on second-resolution PAXGUSDT and BTCUSDT data from Binance demonstrate that ReLaMix consistently achieves state-of-the-art accuracy across multiple delay ratios (15%, 25%, 35%) and prediction horizons (k=1,5,7,10), significantly outperforming strong baselines including TimeMixer, TimesNet, PatchTST, LSTM, and GRU. Notably, ReLaMix attains this with only ~14K parameters, an order of magnitude fewer than Transformer-based models. Ablation studies confirm the critical roles of both bottleneck compression and residual refinement: removing compression increases parameters and degrades accuracy, while removing residual refinement causes catastrophic performance collapse. The framework also shows robust cross-asset generalization to BTCUSDT under severe delays. Overall, ReLaMix provides an efficient and principled solution for delay-robust high-frequency forecasting, balancing recovery accuracy with computational efficiency suitable for real-time trading environments.

Highlights

  • 1Formalizes high-frequency forecasting under Zero-Order Hold (ZOH) latency-induced staleness, revealing failure modes of existing models.
  • 2Proposes ReLaMix, a lightweight residual bottleneck mixing network that suppresses ZOH redundancy while preserving market dynamics.
  • 3Achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on PAXGUSDT and BTCUSDT benchmarks with only ~14K parameters, significantly fewer than baselines.
  • 4Designs a non-overlapping segmented evaluation protocol to prevent temporal leakage in delay-robust forecasting.

Methods

  • M
    Information Bottleneck Compression: Projects noisy inputs into a compact latent space to filter ZOH-induced redundancy.
  • M
    Residual Latency-Aware Mixing Block: Combines time mixing (linear temporal transformation) and feature mixing (expand-compress mechanism) with pre-activation residual connections.
  • M
    Multi-Level Skip Connections: Aggregates representations from all preceding layers via cumulative residual pathways for improved gradient flow.
  • M
    End-to-end training with MSE loss on corrupted-to-clean sequences.

Results

  • R
    ReLaMix achieves MSE of 0.02928 at 15% delay and k=1 on PAXGUSDT, outperforming TimesNet (0.04904) and TimeMixer (0.07898).
  • R
    Consistently lowest MSE/MAE and highest R² across all delay ratios (15%, 25%, 35%) and horizons (k=1,5,7,10) on PAXGUSDT.
  • R
    Uses only 13-15K parameters, compared to TimeMixer (~41K), PatchTST (~102K), and TimesNet (~229K).
  • R
    Ablation shows removing residual refinement causes MSE to rise from 0.02928 to 0.23709 at 15% delay and k=1.
  • R
    Generalizes to BTCUSDT, achieving best MSE (0.0299) and MAE (0.0222) at 35% delay and k=10.
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