On the origin of power law tails in price fluctuations

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On the origin of power law tails in price fluctuations

J. Doyne Farmer
Fabrizio Lillo
Published on 9/17/2003
Equities
United Kingdom (UK)
United States (US)
High frequency trading
Volume effect
Liquidity risk premium

This paper critically examines the theory proposed by Gabaix et al. (Nature, 2003) that power law tails in price fluctuations arise from volume fluctuations modulated by a square root market impact function. The authors identify three major flaws in the theory. First, they demonstrate that the statistical test used by Gabaix et al. to support a square root market impact—based on the linearity of E[r^2|V]—lacks power in the presence of strong autocorrelations in order flow (signs and volumes). Using real transaction data from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) with an artificially imposed market impact of β=0.3, they show that the test still yields a linear relationship for large numbers of trades, incorrectly suggesting a square root law. Second, they provide new measurements of average market impact at the individual order level for both NYSE and LSE stocks, with proper error bars accounting for long-memory volatility. The results show that the market impact function is not universal: for NYSE stocks it is concave with exponent β<0.2 for large volumes, while for LSE stocks it follows a power law with β≈0.26, both significantly less than 0.5. Third, they find that for LSE stocks traded electronically, the distribution of transaction volumes does not exhibit power law tails, and the return distributions vary substantially across stocks despite similar volume distributions. These findings collectively refute the claim that power law tails in returns are driven by volume fluctuations. The paper concludes that the true origin of large price fluctuations likely lies in liquidity fluctuations and the stochastic properties of order placement, as suggested by subsequent work.

Highlights

  • 1Demonstrates that the statistical test used by Gabaix et al. to support a square root market impact law lacks power due to long-memory in order flow.
  • 2Shows that the average market impact function varies across markets and stocks, and does not follow a universal square root law.
  • 3Finds that for LSE stocks traded electronically, transaction volume distributions do not exhibit power law tails, contradicting a key assumption of Gabaix et al.'s theory.
  • 4Provides evidence that power law tails in price fluctuations are not driven by volume fluctuations modulated by market impact.

Methods

  • M
    Simulation-based test using real order flow data with artificial market impact functions to evaluate the power of Gabaix et al.'s linearity test.
  • M
    Empirical estimation of average market impact at the individual order level with error bars computed via variance plot method accounting for long-memory volatility.
  • M
    Analysis of volume distributions and return distributions for LSE and NYSE stocks using high-frequency transaction data.

Results

  • R
    The linearity test of E[r^2|V] fails to reject a non-square-root market impact (e.g., β=0.3) when applied to real data with autocorrelated signs and volumes.
  • R
    Average market impact for NYSE stocks shows a concave shape with exponent β<0.2 for large volumes, while LSE stocks exhibit β≈0.26, both significantly less than 0.5.
  • R
    Volume distributions for LSE electronic market stocks do not show clear power law tails; the exponent of the cumulative distribution is at least 3, implying a predicted return exponent α≈10, inconsistent with observed α≈2-4.
  • R
    Return distributions vary across stocks despite similar volume distributions, further undermining the volume-driven explanation.
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