Whack-a-mole Online Learning: Physics-Informed Neural Network for Intraday Implied Volatility Surface
Whack-a-mole Online Learning: Physics-Informed Neural Network for Intraday Implied Volatility Surface
This paper introduces Whack-a-mole Online Learning (WamOL), a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINNs) framework for calibrating the intraday Implied Volatility Surface (IVS) from sparse and uneven market data. The IVS calibration is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem that requires fitting observed option prices while satisfying a partial differential equation (PDE) derived from the local volatility model and no-arbitrage inequality constraints on option price derivatives. WamOL extends standard PINNs by incorporating derivative-constrained PINNs (DCPINNs) to handle inequality constraints and introduces a self-adaptive loss balancing mechanism that dynamically reweights each loss term during training. Additionally, WamOL employs online incremental learning to update the model as new intraday data arrives, avoiding full retraining and enabling real-time adaptation. The 'whack-a-mole' strategy refers to the adaptive focusing on violated constraints, similar to the game of whack-a-mole. Experiments on real market data demonstrate that WamOL outperforms baseline methods in terms of accuracy, constraint satisfaction, and computational efficiency. The calibrated IVS yields smooth and financially meaningful risk sensitivities (Greeks) via automatic differentiation. This work provides a practical solution for real-time financial modeling, extending the application of PINNs to dynamic environments with streaming data and multiple constraints.
Highlights
- 1Proposes Whack-a-mole Online Learning (WamOL), a novel PINNs-based algorithm for intraday implied volatility surface calibration.
- 2Integrates self-adaptive and auto-balancing loss weighting to handle multi-objective optimization with PDE and no-arbitrage constraints.
- 3Enables real-time online learning to adapt to streaming market data and capture temporal dynamics of the IVS.
- 4Demonstrates superior interpolation and extrapolation performance on real market data compared to baseline methods.
- 5Provides interpretable risk sensitivity profiles via automatic differentiation.
Methods
- MPhysics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) with derivative constraints (DCPINNs) for PDE and inequality constraints.
- MSelf-adaptive loss balancing using trainable weights that adjust during training.
- MOnline incremental learning for sequential data updates without full retraining.
- MWhack-a-mole strategy: dynamically reweighting loss terms to focus on violated constraints.
Results
- RWamOL achieves lower total loss and better adherence to no-arbitrage conditions compared to standard PINNs and other baselines.
- RThe model accurately captures the dynamic evolution of the IVS across intraday time steps.
- RRisk sensitivity (Greeks) computed via automatic differentiation are smooth and financially plausible.
- ROnline learning enables efficient updates with minimal computational overhead, suitable for real-time applications.
- RThe self-adaptive weighting mechanism effectively balances data fitting, PDE residual, and inequality constraints.
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