FuNVol: A Multi-Asset Implied Volatility Market Simulator using Functional Principal Components and Neural SDEs

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FuNVol: A Multi-Asset Implied Volatility Market Simulator using Functional Principal Components and Neural SDEs

Vedant Choudhary
Sebastian Jaimungal
Maxime Bergeron
Published on 3/1/2023
Options
Derivatives
Cross-asset
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management
Volatility premium

The paper introduces FuNVol, a generative model for simulating multi-asset implied volatility (IV) surfaces over time. The approach combines functional data analysis (FDA) with neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to produce realistic market scenarios. First, IV surfaces are projected onto a set of Legendre basis functions, and functional principal component analysis (FPCA) reduces the dimensionality, yielding a time series of functional principal component coefficients (FPCCs). These coefficients, along with other market observables (e.g., asset prices), are then modeled using a neural SDE, where the drift and diffusion are parameterized by GRU-based neural networks. A novel probability integral transform (PIT) penalty is applied during training to reduce model misspecification. The model does not impose explicit static arbitrage constraints, yet the generated surfaces are shown to have less static arbitrage than the training data. The authors validate the model by simulating IV surfaces for four equity tickers and performing a delta hedging exercise, demonstrating that the simulated profit and loss distributions match those from historical data. This framework is useful for generating synthetic data for training reinforcement learning algorithms in hedging and portfolio optimization.

Highlights

  • 1Combines functional data analysis (FPCA) with neural SDEs to generate multi-asset implied volatility surfaces that are faithful to historical data.
  • 2Introduces a novel probability integral transform (PIT) penalty to reduce model misspecification in the neural SDE framework.
  • 3Demonstrates that generated surfaces are mostly free of static arbitrage, with less arbitrage than the training market data.
  • 4Validates the model through a delta hedging exercise, showing that simulated P&L distributions match realized P&Ls.

Methods

  • M
    Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) on Legendre polynomial basis projections to reduce dimensionality of IV surfaces.
  • M
    Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) with GRU-based drift and diffusion networks to model temporal dynamics of FPCCs and market data.
  • M
    Probability Integral Transform (PIT) penalty to align model distribution with empirical distribution and reduce misspecification.

Results

  • R
    The model generates realistic sequences of IV surfaces across multiple assets (e.g., four equity tickers) that capture historical features.
  • R
    Generated surfaces exhibit less static arbitrage than the original market data, as measured by arbitrage metrics.
  • R
    Delta hedging using simulated surfaces produces profit and loss distributions consistent with those from historical data.
  • R
    The low-dimensional FPCC representation effectively captures the main sources of variation in IV surfaces.
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