Optimal market making with persistent order flow

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Optimal market making with persistent order flow

Paul Jusselin
Published on 3/12/2020
Equities
Futures
FX
High frequency trading
Risk management
Machine learning

This paper addresses the optimal market making problem in electronic markets where market order flows exhibit clustering and long memory, modeled by general Hawkes processes with completely monotone kernels. The market maker controls bid and ask spreads to maximize expected utility from terminal wealth and intermediate rewards, while managing inventory risk. The problem is formulated as a stochastic control problem, and the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is derived. Due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the state space (intensity processes are functions), the author proves existence and uniqueness of a viscosity solution to the HJB equation on a locally compact domain. The optimal spreads are characterized in feedback form, depending on the value function and the current intensities.

To make the solution tractable, the paper proposes approximating the completely monotone kernel by a sum of exponentials, which yields a finite-dimensional Markovian representation. This allows numerical approximation of the optimal control via standard methods for finite-dimensional HJB equations. For high-dimensional cases, a probabilistic representation using branching processes is employed. The theoretical results include convergence of the approximated controls to the true optimal control as the kernel approximation improves. Numerical experiments illustrate the impact of order flow persistence on optimal spreads, showing that the market maker adjusts spreads dynamically in response to clustered order flow.

Highlights

  • 1Models market order flows using general Hawkes processes with completely monotone kernels, capturing both clustering and long memory properties.
  • 2Formulates the market maker's problem as a stochastic control problem and proves existence and uniqueness of a viscosity solution to the associated HJB equation.
  • 3Develops a numerical approximation method by approximating the kernel with sums of exponentials, enabling finite-dimensional Markovian representation.
  • 4Provides a fully consistent numerical scheme using probabilistic representation of semi-linear PDEs for high-dimensional HJB equations.

Methods

  • M
    Stochastic control theory with Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation
  • M
    Viscosity solutions for partial integro-differential equations on infinite-dimensional domains
  • M
    Approximation of completely monotone kernels by sums of exponentials (Laplace transform inversion)
  • M
    Probabilistic representation of semi-linear PDEs (e.g., branching processes) for numerical implementation

Results

  • R
    Optimal bid and ask spreads are given by δ* = (σ/k - I)+, where I depends on the value function and order flow intensity.
  • R
    The optimal control is a feedback function of the state variables (price, inventory, and intensity processes).
  • R
    The value function is the unique viscosity solution of the HJB equation with polynomial growth.
  • R
    Numerical experiments show that the optimal strategy adapts spreads to order flow clustering and long memory.
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