Volatility is rough

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Volatility is rough

Jim Gatheral
Thibault Jaisson
Mathieu Rosenbaum
Published on 10/13/2014
Equities
Cross-asset
High frequency trading
Risk management
Machine learning

This paper challenges the conventional view that volatility is smooth or has long memory by analyzing high-frequency financial data. The authors find that log-volatility behaves like a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of approximately 0.1, indicating a rough, anti-persistent process. They propose the Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) model, a variant of the Comte and Renault FSV model with H < 1/2, which captures this roughness. The RFSV model is shown to be remarkably consistent with empirical data and yields improved forecasts of realized volatility compared to standard models. Additionally, the paper demonstrates that statistical tests for long memory often incorrectly detect persistence in data generated by the rough process, explaining why long memory has been widely accepted as a stylized fact. Finally, the authors provide a market microstructure foundation, linking volatility roughness to high-frequency trading and order splitting, offering a quantitative explanation for the observed behavior.

Highlights

  • 1Log-volatility behaves as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.1, indicating rough volatility.
  • 2Introduces the Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) model, where H < 1/2, contrasting with traditional FSV models.
  • 3RFSV model is highly consistent with financial data and improves realized volatility forecasts.
  • 4Shows that apparent long memory in volatility can be a statistical artifact when data is generated by a rough process.
  • 5Provides a market microstructure foundation linking volatility roughness to high-frequency trading and order splitting.

Methods

  • M
    Estimation of Hurst exponent from high-frequency volatility data.
  • M
    Fractional stochastic volatility (FSV) modeling with H < 1/2 (RFSV).
  • M
    Statistical tests for long memory and persistence in volatility.
  • M
    Market microstructure analysis to explain roughness.

Results

  • R
    Log-volatility has a Hurst exponent of about 0.1, implying rough rather than smooth dynamics.
  • R
    RFSV model outperforms standard models in forecasting realized volatility.
  • R
    Classical long-memory tests often falsely indicate long memory in RFSV-generated data.
  • R
    Roughness is linked to high-frequency trading behavior and order splitting.
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