Networks of News and Cross-Sectional Returns

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Networks of News and Cross-Sectional Returns

Junjie Hu
Wolfgang Karl Härdle
Published on 8/12/2021
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Alternative data
Sentiment
Machine learning
Momentum in stocks
Reversal
Stock picking

This paper constructs time-varying directed news networks from a large dataset of over 1 million news articles to study cross-sectional stock returns of S&P500 stocks. The authors define a news linkage based on the position of firms in articles: the firm in the headline is the lead, and firms mentioned in the content are followers. A careful algorithm is proposed to identify firm tickers, reducing type-I errors. Using these networks, two key variables are derived: lead return (a weighted average of lead firms' returns) and network degree (a measure of attention). The empirical analysis reveals a strong comovement effect: follower stock returns move positively with contemporaneous lead returns, even after controlling for Fama-French factors and firm characteristics. Additionally, a reversal effect is found from lead returns on 1-day ahead follower returns. Portfolio tests show that sorting on lead return generates a significant daily return spread of 165.15 bps. More importantly, the network degree, as a proxy for news attention, provides robust and significant cross-sectional predictability of monthly stock returns. Decomposing the networks shows that within-sector linkages, large lead firms, and lead firms with lower stock liquidity are particularly important for this predictability. The results are robust to various controls and network formation windows, highlighting the value of news-based networks in understanding stock return dynamics.

Highlights

  • 1Constructs time-varying directed news networks from over 1 million news articles to study cross-sectional stock returns of S&P500 stocks.
  • 2Proposes a novel algorithm to identify firm tickers in news articles, reducing type-I errors.
  • 3Finds strong comovement effect between news-linked stocks' returns and a reversal effect from lead stock returns on follower stock returns.
  • 4Demonstrates that network degree, a proxy for news attention, provides robust and significant cross-sectional predictability of monthly stock returns.
  • 5Shows that within-sector linkages, large lead firms, and lead firms with lower liquidity are crucial for predictability.

Methods

  • M
    Directed news network construction based on the assumption that the firm of main interest appears in the headline and related firms in the content.
  • M
    Ticker identification algorithm focusing on three reliable scenarios to minimize false positives.
  • M
    Econometric regression models (Fama-French 3-factor and 5-factor) with double-clustered standard errors to test comovement and reversal effects.
  • M
    Portfolio sorting and long-short strategies based on lead return and network degree.

Results

  • R
    Daily stock residual returns positively relate to contemporaneous lead return at the 1% significance level, indicating comovement.
  • R
    A reversal effect from lead return on 1-day ahead follower stock returns is significant after controlling for factors and firm characteristics.
  • R
    Portfolios sorted on lead return yield a significant daily return spread of 165.15 bps between highest and lowest quintiles.
  • R
    Network degree predicts monthly cross-sectional returns: firms with higher network attention outperform those with lower attention.
  • R
    Within-sector linkages, large lead firms, and low-liquidity lead firms are key drivers of the predictability.
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