Deep Hedging: Learning to Simulate Equity Option Markets

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Deep Hedging: Learning to Simulate Equity Option Markets

Magnus Wiese
Lianjun Bai
Ben Wood
Hans Buehler
Published on 11/5/2019
Equities
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
AI

This paper presents a novel application of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to simulate multivariate equity option market data, specifically implied volatilities of EURO STOXX 50 options. The authors transform option prices into discrete local volatilities (DLVs) to enforce no-arbitrage constraints and reduce dimensionality via PCA. They formulate the simulation as a conditional generative model mapping noise and state to next-step log-DLVs, using recurrent and temporal convolutional architectures. Training methods include GANs, Wasserstein GANs with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP), and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (qMLE), with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and unconditional TCN as baselines.

Extensive evaluation using distributional (density, skewness, kurtosis), dependence (ACF), and cross-correlation metrics shows that adversarial training significantly outperforms classical methods. The explicit GAN model achieves the best overall scores, generating realistic paths that capture volatility clustering, bimodal distributions, and cross-correlation structures. PCA compression reduces dimensionality but slightly degrades performance. This work demonstrates for the first time that GANs can successfully generate multivariate financial time series, providing a valuable tool for training and evaluating option trading strategies with augmented data.

Highlights

  • 1First application of GANs to generate multivariate option price time series, specifically equity index options.
  • 2Use of discrete local volatilities (DLVs) to enforce no-arbitrage constraints and reduce dimensionality via PCA.
  • 3Adversarial training (GAN/WGAN-GP) outperforms classical methods (VAR, qMLE) on distributional, dependence, and cross-correlation metrics.
  • 4Explicit GAN model achieves best overall scores, generating realistic paths with volatility clustering and accurate cross-correlations.

Methods

  • M
    Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Wasserstein GAN with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP) for conditional time series generation.
  • M
    Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (qMLE) with Gaussian assumption and diagonal covariance.
  • M
    Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction of log-DLV levels.
  • M
    Benchmark models: Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs).

Results

  • R
    Explicit GAN model achieves best distributional fit (density difference 0.044, skewness 0.063, kurtosis 0.097).
  • R
    GAN model yields lowest ACF error for log-DLVs (0.186) and log-returns (0.011), and best cross-correlation scores (0.137 for levels, 0.771 for returns).
  • R
    PCA compression reduces dimensionality but slightly degrades performance; explicit GAN outperforms compressed versions.
  • R
    qMLE and VAR models perform significantly worse, especially in kurtosis and cross-correlation metrics.
  • R
    Generated paths exhibit realistic volatility clustering and cross-correlation patterns similar to historical data.
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