Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time

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Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time

Patrick Cheridito
Michael Kupper
Ludovic Tangpi
Published on 2/19/2016
Derivatives
Cross-asset
Risk management
Arbitrage

This paper develops robust pricing and hedging dualities for contingent claims in discrete-time financial markets. The authors consider a general framework where uncertainty is modeled by a set of possible asset price trajectories, without a fixed probability measure. They define super- and subhedging functionals using an acceptance set A and a set of trading gains G, allowing for both strict hedging (A = non-negative outcomes) and relaxed hedging where shortfall risk is reduced to an acceptable level. The main result, Theorem 2.1, provides dual representations of these functionals in terms of expectations under probability measures, under a growth condition (2.1) and a regularity condition (2.2). This yields a robust fundamental theorem of asset pricing, linking no-arbitrage conditions to the existence of generalized martingale measures.

The paper applies the general theory to several important settings. For strict superhedging, it considers semi-static strategies with convex transaction costs and trading constraints, deriving explicit dualities involving martingale or supermartingale measures. For relaxed hedging, it uses robust versions of the average value at risk and entropic risk measure to define acceptance sets, leading to robust good deal bounds that are tighter than strict bounds. The approach unifies and extends existing results on robust hedging, transaction costs, and risk-based hedging, providing a flexible framework for pricing under model uncertainty.

Highlights

  • 1Derives robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims depending on multiple underlying assets in discrete time.
  • 2Introduces relaxed hedging versions that reduce shortfall risk to an acceptable level, yielding tighter price bounds.
  • 3Provides a robust fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) linking no-arbitrage to generalized martingale measures.
  • 4Covers strict hedging with convex transaction costs and trading constraints, as well as risk-based hedging with robust risk measures.
  • 5Uses representation results for increasing convex functionals to handle general market structures.

Methods

  • M
    Convex duality and representation of increasing convex functionals.
  • M
    Robust superhedging with acceptance sets and trading gains sets.
  • M
    Semi-static hedging with dynamic trading and static derivative positions.
  • M
    Risk-based hedging using robust average value at risk and entropic risk measures.

Results

  • R
    Establishes equivalence between no-arbitrage conditions and existence of probability measures with non-positive expectations on trading gains.
  • R
    Provides dual representation for superhedging functional as maximum over penalized expectations.
  • R
    Extends duality to upper semicontinuous payoffs under additional regularity conditions.
  • R
    Shows that condition (2.1) holds for acceptance sets defined via penalty functions with superlinear growth.
  • R
    Derives explicit dualities for strict superhedging with convex transaction costs and short-selling constraints.
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