Fragmentation, Price Formation, and Cross-Impact in Bitcoin Markets

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Fragmentation, Price Formation, and Cross-Impact in Bitcoin Markets

Jakob Albers
Mihai Cucuringu
Sam Howison
Alexander Y. Shestopaloff
Published on 8/22/2021
Crypto
Cross-asset
High frequency trading
Machine learning
Market timing
Arbitrage

This paper investigates price formation and cross-market dynamics in Bitcoin markets, which are highly fragmented across multiple exchanges and instruments. Using granular limit orderbook and trade data from the 14 most liquid Bitcoin markets (including perpetual swaps, futures, and spot), the authors construct microstructural features such as orderbook imbalance and order flow imbalance at 50ms resolution. These features are used to train linear models that predict 500ms future returns, achieving R-squared values between 10% and 37% depending on the target market. The models reveal a clear leader-lagger network: markets with lower taker fees (e.g., FTX, Binance) tend to lead price discovery, while higher-fee markets (e.g., Bitmex, Bybit) lag. This asymmetry is attributed to the fee structure influencing liquidity and order aggressiveness. The authors validate their models through trading strategies. Taker strategies (using market orders) are profitable only on low-fee markets after accounting for transaction costs. More importantly, they derive a maker strategy (using passive limit orders) and test it in a live trading experiment with $1.5 million notional volume, showing significant outperformance over a naive benchmark. The study underscores the importance of fee regimes in determining market leadership and the potential for cross-market predictive signals to generate alpha, even after costs. The findings contribute to understanding price formation in fragmented markets and offer practical insights for algorithmic trading in cryptocurrencies.

Highlights

  • 1Constructs microstructural features from orderbook and trade data to capture information flow across fragmented Bitcoin markets.
  • 2Generates a leader-lagger network quantifying cross-market impact and identifies fee regimes as key determinants of market leadership.
  • 3Develops linear models explaining 10–37% of 500ms future return variation, validated via taker and maker trading strategies.
  • 4Conducts a live trading experiment with $1.5M notional volume, demonstrating significant outperformance of a maker strategy over a naive benchmark.
  • 5First comprehensive study of cross-market price formation in Bitcoin using granular limit orderbook data from 14 liquid markets.

Methods

  • M
    Feature engineering: orderbook imbalance (depth-weighted), order flow imbalance, and price difference features at 50ms resolution.
  • M
    Linear regression models (OLS, ridge, lasso) trained on lagged features to predict 500ms future returns.
  • M
    Network analysis: lead-lag relationships inferred from cross-impact coefficients in predictive models.
  • M
    Trading strategy backtesting: taker (market order) and maker (limit order) strategies with transaction costs, plus live trading experiment.

Results

  • R
    Linear models explain 10–37% of 500ms future return variation across different target markets.
  • R
    Markets with lower taker fees (e.g., FTX, Binance) tend to be leaders; higher-fee markets (e.g., Bitmex, Bybit) are laggards.
  • R
    Taker strategies yield positive PnL only on low-fee markets after costs; maker strategies profitable on high-rebate markets.
  • R
    Live trading of maker strategy on one market outperforms naive benchmark by significant margin, turning over $1.5M notional.
  • R
    Cross-impact is asymmetric: information flows predominantly from low-fee to high-fee markets.
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