General Semi-Markov Model for Limit Order Books: Theory, Implementation and Numerics

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General Semi-Markov Model for Limit Order Books: Theory, Implementation and Numerics

Anatoliy Swishchuk
Katharina Cera
Julia Schmidt
Tyler Hofmeister
Published on 8/17/2016
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
High frequency trading
Machine learning

This paper generalizes the semi-Markov model for limit order books (LOBs) originally proposed by Swishchuk and Vadori. The key innovation is allowing price changes to be of arbitrary size, not restricted to a single tick, which is motivated by empirical evidence showing that a large fraction of price changes exceed one tick. The authors develop two extensions: a two-state model where price changes can take two values (e.g., +δ and -δ but with variable magnitude) and a more general multi-state model allowing an arbitrary number of price change sizes. For both models, they derive diffusion limits under balanced and unbalanced market conditions, providing explicit formulas for the volatility coefficient in terms of model parameters such as transition probabilities, stationary distributions, and mean sojourn times. The theoretical results are complemented by implementations and numerical tests on real LOB data from multiple stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Facebook, etc.). The empirical analysis demonstrates that the generalized models significantly improve the fit between the theoretical diffusion coefficient and the observed 10-minute volatility compared to the original fixed-tick model. The paper also reviews key assumptions of previous models and validates them with new data, confirming the need for non-exponential inter-arrival times and variable price change sizes. Overall, this work provides a more realistic and flexible framework for modeling LOB dynamics and price volatility in high-frequency finance.

Highlights

  • 1Extends the semi-Markov LOB model to allow price changes of arbitrary size, not fixed to one tick.
  • 2Introduces a general model with an arbitrary number of states for price changes.
  • 3Derives diffusion limits for both two-state and multi-state models under balanced and unbalanced cases.
  • 4Validates the models using empirical data from multiple stocks, showing improved fit over previous models.
  • 5Provides implementation details and numerical results for real LOB data.

Methods

  • M
    Semi-Markov renewal process for modeling queue dynamics and price changes.
  • M
    Diffusion limit theory using weak convergence in Skorokhod topology.
  • M
    Empirical analysis of LOB data from LOBster and Cartera et al. datasets.
  • M
    Computation of conditional probabilities and diffusion coefficients from order flow.

Results

  • R
    The two-state model with variable price changes yields a diffusion limit with explicit volatility formula.
  • R
    The multi-state model generalizes the diffusion limit to arbitrary price change magnitudes.
  • R
    Empirical tests show that the generalized models better capture the relationship between order flow and volatility than the original fixed-tick model.
  • R
    The linear relationship between λ/D(f) and 10-minute standard deviation is improved in the generalized models.
  • R
    The models are validated on multiple stocks including Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel, and others.
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