Multiscaling and rough volatility: an empirical investigation

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Multiscaling and rough volatility: an empirical investigation

Giuseppe Brandi
T. Di Matteo
Published on 1/25/2022
Equities
Derivatives
Options
Volatility effect
Volatility premium
Machine learning
Risk management

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between price multiscaling and volatility roughness, defined as the Hurst exponent of the volatility process. Using the rough Bergomi model as a benchmark, the authors simulate price and volatility paths across a range of Hurst exponents H and correlation parameters λ. They estimate scaling and multiscaling properties via the Generalized Hurst Exponent method with an optimal aggregation time determined by Autocorrelation Segmented Regression. The simulations show that the rough Bergomi model generates multiscaling prices only for very low H (below 0.3), and the correlation between volatility roughness and price multiscaling is positive, diminishing as H increases.

In contrast, analysis of 31 global stock indices using realized variance (10-minute frequency) reveals a strong negative correlation between volatility roughness and price multiscaling: Pearson correlation of -0.43 and Spearman correlation of -0.51, both statistically significant. This negative relationship becomes even stronger after removing outliers (robust correlations of -0.61 and -0.65). The model's positive correlation is diametrically opposite to the empirical finding, indicating that the rough Bergomi model cannot reproduce the observed dependency structure. The results highlight the need for new models that simultaneously capture rough volatility and multiscaling with their correct negative interplay, which has implications for risk forecasting and derivative pricing.

Highlights

  • 1Investigates the interplay between price multiscaling and volatility roughness using the rough Bergomi model.
  • 2Finds that the rough Bergomi model can generate multiscaling prices only for very low Hurst exponents (H ~ 0.1).
  • 3Real data analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between volatility roughness and price multiscaling, opposite to the model's positive correlation.
  • 4Uses robust correlation methods to confirm the negative dependency, highlighting a discrepancy between model and empirical data.
  • 5Calls for new models that simultaneously capture rough volatility and multiscaling with their observed negative relationship.

Methods

  • M
    Generalized Hurst Exponent (GHE) method to estimate scaling exponents H_q and multiscaling proxy B.
  • M
    Autocorrelation Segmented Regression (ACSR) to determine optimal maximum aggregation time τ_max.
  • M
    Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, including outlier-robust versions (bivariate outlier detection).
  • M
    Monte Carlo simulations of the rough Bergomi model with varying H and λ parameters.

Results

  • R
    The rough Bergomi model produces multiscaling prices only when the volatility Hurst exponent H is very low (H < 0.3).
  • R
    In simulated data, the correlation between volatility roughness (H^(v)) and price multiscaling (B^(P)) is positive and decreases as H increases.
  • R
    Real data show a strong negative correlation: ρ = -0.43 (Pearson) and ρ_S = -0.51 (Spearman), robust to outliers (ρ̃ = -0.61, ρ̃_S = -0.65).
  • R
    The model fails to reproduce the empirical negative dependency; simulated correlations are positive for all λ values.
  • R
    Volatility roughness (H^(v)) in real data ranges from 0.06 to 0.14, confirming rough volatility, while price multiscaling (B^(P)) is significantly negative.
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