Neural networks for option pricing and hedging: a literature review
Neural networks for option pricing and hedging: a literature review
This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of neural network applications for option pricing and hedging, covering over 150 papers from the early 1990s to the present. The authors systematically compare papers based on six key characteristics: input features (e.g., moneyness, volatility estimates), output variables (option prices, implied volatilities, hedging ratios), benchmark models (e.g., Black-Scholes, binomial trees), performance measures (e.g., MAE, MSE, R²), data partition methods (chronological vs. random), and underlying assets (e.g., S&P 500, DAX, individual stocks). The review highlights that while most studies report positive performance of ANNs, many suffer from methodological flaws such as improper data partitioning that violates time series structure, leading to data leakage and overoptimistic results. The authors offer three pieces of advice for practitioners: use stationary input features, benchmark appropriately, and respect chronological order when splitting data. The paper also discusses related work where ANNs are used for model-based pricing (e.g., learning from simulated data) and regularization techniques like early stopping and dropout. This review serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners by summarizing the state of the art and identifying best practices in the field.
Highlights
- 1Comprehensive review of over 150 papers on neural networks for option pricing and hedging since the early 1990s.
- 2Identifies common practices and issues in input features, output variables, benchmarks, and data partitioning.
- 3Highlights problematic data leakage due to improper chronological partitioning of training and test sets.
- 4Provides recommendations for using stationary features, appropriate benchmarking, and respecting time series structure.
Methods
- MLiterature review and systematic comparison of papers across six characteristics: features, outputs, benchmarks, performance measures, data partition, and underlyings.
- MCategorization of papers by ANN architecture, activation functions, and training methodologies.
- MDiscussion of regularization techniques used in the reviewed literature.
Results
- RMost papers focus on pricing options, with about 10% estimating implied volatilities and very few on hedging.
- RMore than half of the paper abstracts explicitly emphasize positive performance of ANNs in option pricing and hedging.
- RData partitioning often violates time series structure, leading to information leakage and underestimated generalization error.
- RRecent papers tend to use moneyness (S/K) instead of separate price and strike inputs, and employ more complex architectures.
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