The Price Impact of Generalized Order Flow Imbalance
The Price Impact of Generalized Order Flow Imbalance
This paper introduces a generalized order flow imbalance (GOFI) construction method that accounts for non-minimum quotation units in real transactions, improving upon traditional Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) and Stationarized Order Flow Imbalance (log-OFI). The key innovation is to consider price changes beyond the minimum tick size by aggregating order flow across multiple price levels, which better captures the true market imbalance. Using high-frequency order book snapshot data from CSI 500 constituent stocks, the authors empirically compare the explanatory power of these indicators for short-term price changes at 30-second, 1-minute, and 5-minute intervals.
The results demonstrate that both GOFI and its stationarized version (log-GOFI) significantly outperform traditional OFI and log-OFI. Specifically, log-GOFI achieves average out-of-sample R-squared values of 83.57%, 85.37%, and 86.01% for the three time scales, compared to only 32.89%, 38.13%, and 42.57% for OFI. Moreover, log-GOFI exhibits stronger stability in its explanatory power across different time scales. These findings suggest that incorporating multi-level order book information into order flow imbalance measures can substantially enhance the ability to explain and predict short-term price movements in stock markets.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a generalized order flow imbalance (GOFI) construction method that accounts for non-minimum quotation units in real transactions.
- 2Improves upon traditional OFI and stationarized OFI (log-OFI) by incorporating multi-level order book changes.
- 3Demonstrates significantly higher explanatory power for short-term price changes using CSI 500 constituent stocks.
- 4Shows that generalized stationarized OFI (log-GOFI) achieves out-of-sample R-squared values above 83% across 30s, 1min, and 5min intervals.
- 5Finds that log-GOFI provides more stable interpretability across different time scales compared to OFI.
Methods
- MGeneralized order flow imbalance construction: incorporates price changes beyond the minimum tick size by considering multiple price levels.
- MLinear regression models to relate order flow imbalance to price changes.
- MEmpirical analysis using high-frequency order book snapshot data from CSI 500 stocks.
- MComparison of OFI, log-OFI, GOFI, and log-GOFI on 30-second, 1-minute, and 5-minute time scales.
Results
- RGeneralized OFI (GOFI) and log-GOFI both outperform traditional OFI and log-OFI in explaining price changes.
- RLog-GOFI achieves average out-of-sample R-squared of 83.57%, 85.37%, and 86.01% for 30s, 1min, and 5min intervals, respectively.
- RTraditional OFI yields out-of-sample R-squared of only 32.89%, 38.13%, and 42.57% for the same intervals.
- RLog-GOFI shows stronger stability in explanatory power across all three time scales compared to OFI.
- RThe improvement is consistent across 10 selected CSI 500 constituent stocks.
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