Deep calibration of the quadratic rough Heston model

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Deep calibration of the quadratic rough Heston model

Mathieu Rosenbaum
Jianfei Zhang
Published on 7/4/2021
Options
Equities
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management
Volatility effect

The paper introduces a deep learning-based calibration framework for the quadratic rough Heston model, which extends the rough Heston model to incorporate the Zumbach effect (feedback of past returns on future volatility). The model is made tractable via a multi-factor approximation that replaces the fractional kernel with a sum of exponentials, resulting in a high-dimensional Markovian system. This approximation allows efficient Monte Carlo simulation. To overcome the computational burden of calibration, the authors train deep neural networks using two strategies: a Parameters-to-Market (PtM) network that directly maps implied volatility surfaces to model parameters, and a Market-to-Parameters (MtP) network that approximates the pricing function and is then used within a traditional optimizer. Both methods are trained on a large synthetic dataset generated from the model. Numerical experiments show that the neural networks achieve pricing accuracy within Monte Carlo confidence intervals. When calibrated to market data, the model jointly fits SPX and VIX implied volatilities remarkably well, with VIX option prices falling inside bid-ask spreads and an excellent reproduction of the SPX at-the-money skew. Additionally, the trained networks enable instantaneous computation of hedging quantities (Greeks), facilitating practical hedging applications. The work demonstrates that combining rough volatility models with deep learning provides a powerful and efficient tool for derivatives pricing, calibration, and risk management.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a multi-factor approximation of the quadratic rough Heston model to make it Markovian and amenable to simulation.
  • 2Uses deep neural networks (PtM and MtP) for efficient joint calibration of SPX and VIX implied volatility surfaces.
  • 3Demonstrates excellent fit to market data, with VIX option prices within bid-ask spreads and accurate SPX at-the-money skew.
  • 4Shows that trained networks enable instantaneous computation of hedging quantities for European options.

Methods

  • M
    Multi-factor approximation of the fractional kernel using a sum of exponentials, making the model Markovian in high dimension.
  • M
    Deep learning calibration via two approaches: Parameters-to-Market (PtM) and Market-to-Parameters (MtP) using multilayer perceptrons.
  • M
    Monte Carlo simulation with explicit-implicit Euler scheme for synthetic data generation.
  • M
    Transfer learning for adapting the neural network to different roughness parameters α.

Results

  • R
    The multi-factor approximation with n=10 factors accurately reproduces the dynamics of the quadratic rough Heston model.
  • R
    Neural network pricing errors are within the 95% Monte Carlo confidence interval for both SPX and VIX implied volatilities.
  • R
    Joint calibration to market data yields VIX option prices within bid-ask spreads and excellent SPX at-the-money skew fit.
  • R
    Trained networks provide instantaneous Greeks for hedging, enabling perfect replication of European options with SPX only.
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